Plot thickens in Libya as U.K. dismisses Libyan/Qaddafi diplomatic staff, and recognizes rebels as 'sole authority in Libya'. Is this a 'war of choice'? The situation remains complex and unpredictable on the ground, as NATO looks for a way out and the International Criminal Court (ICC) refuses Quaddafi compromise. Geopolitics spurs famine in the Horn of Africa. War crimes website grows in popularity. Some say Ottawa is the source of 'creeping militarism'. In Afghanistan, another suicide attack kills Kandahar Mayor.      

Syrian regime continues slow-motion suicide. Military sustains its rule in Egypt. Food and aid is delivered by U.N. to crisis areas in Somalia. Could be a victory march beginning to gain momentum in Brega, Libya. Doug Saunders argues today in the Globe and Mail that the feeling of unity and common purpose vanishes the day the tyrant is gone. The U.N. continues its work on the ground in Tunisia.      

Let the transitions begin

Libya's Gaddafi sends early signals of departure before fall, as U.S. Secretary of State Clinton hand-delivers recognition of National Transitional Council. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Baird enthuses about the NTC rebels, then contemplates a new embassy and a big loan from seized Gaddafi funds. The United Nations grasps the theme of 'political transition' in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan. South Sudan in particular is the U.N.'s most important arms decommissioning project.        

Optimism turns to...

President Bashir proclaims a 'second republic' in Sudan. Foreign Policy looks afresh at failed states and how they threaten U.S. security. Cairo's Tahrir Square sees renewed protests after military postpones elections. Human Rights Watch reports crimes by rebel forces in Libya. Today in Afghanistan, Karzai attempts to regroup in the South. With Canadians out of Kandahar, will the Taliban accept Karzai's plea to lay down their arms?

Back from the dead.

South Sudan: the world's newest country is soon to get its new currency, and no sign of a new perspective coming out of Khartoum. In an International Crisis Group (ICG) report, more questions than answers about Syria's uprising and the regime's surprising response. Canada's un-celebratory close of operations in Afghanistan urges us to ask: should this world-class military return to base as border tensions continue unabated. The tense politics of military aid plays out between U.S. + Pakistan. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton recognizes Assad's illegitimacy. George Monbiot argues for journalists' pledge like Hippocratic oath to hold power to account. Is there another side to the sordid story? Post-invasion Mosul may mark a combustible province Iraq.    

Friday, September 12 08

Georigan President Saakashvili is the consensus scapegoat; now the clock is ticking. South African President Mbeki believes that because yesterday's Zimbabwean power sharing deal was made by Zimbabweans, it is a bargain they will live with. The final jewel in the crown of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is fugitive Ratko Mladic, who is cornered and deeply dug in. High-level UN Panel tackles successes and failures of African peacekeeping.

With US military commanders pondering the future of the Afghan state, troops will certainly increase, and tribal regions of Pakistan will become another battlefield in the war on terror. For come western commentators, 'territorial inviolability' does not apply to the Afghan/Pakistan border. US VP nominee Palin as the new Spartan mother. Canadian PM Harper issues political promise for Canadian withdrawal from Kandahar by late 2011 (1,2).

Tuesday, September 9 08

Surge doctrine suggested against recent Taliban resurgence in southern Afghanistan. US President Bush blames Pakistan for extremism in southern Afghanistan and Pakistan's western tribal regions. NATO military strategists continue to debate their best response to skyrocketing civilian casualties and routine abuses in Afghanistan. Thailand in the grip of a humanitarian intervention nexus: political survival depends on peace, but insurgency pushes leaders toward violence. The future of their government hotly debated in Washington, Iraq's leaders sound desperate about new interest in the 'Biden Resolution' for sectarian partition of Iraq.

The West claims Czech R & Poland under the banner of freedom. The EU shakes hands with the Ukraine. After Russia threatens repeatedly to 'ramp up military presence' inside Georgia and 'remain for a long time' (1,2), Moscow concedes under revised ceasefire to EU Military Observers and outright withdrawal. Russian President Medvedev vows to follow up on recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Inside Georgia, many are questioning how it came to this.

Friday, September 5 08

US VP Cheney vows support and NATO membership for Georgian allies, as many others worry about the 'grim realities' now facing parts of Eastern and Central Europe. Is the EU's 'soft power' sufficient to 'contain' the new Russia? Recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia seemed comparable to that of Kosovo. Are Georgia's separatist regions ready for political Independence? Regional summit in Dushnabe produces quiet recognition that China, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan share Georgia's fears of the 'three evils' of terrorism, separatism and extremism--but also Russia's projection of regional power.

Tentative optimism after August 19 Somalia peace and reconciliation accord. ICG President and ICISS Commissioner Gareth Evans lays out his platform in this presentation on 'Operationalizing the Responsibility to Protect'. Women's rights groups in Iran achieve milestones and face ongoing challenges. Election fever in the US re-shapes military occupation plans for Iraq. In Washington, military leaders maintain right to pursue Al Qaeda outside Afghani borders, but each raid into Pakistan's territory stokes political instability.

Thursday, September 04 2008

US VP Cheney seeks to advance peace and stability by dangling new military technology to battered Georgia. Has the UN Security Council become impotent? Is Russia putting the 'European model' of governance on trial? As the smoke settles, 'Russification' of border towns appears part of the program. Russian President Medvedev has outlined the five principles of Moscow's new foreign policy. Public opinion across Russia is equating condemnation with aggression. US deals with Polish and Czech governments now officially on the fast track.

UN/AU Peacekeeping operation in Darfur (UNAMID) spotlights Sudanese forces allegedly massing around Kalma displacement camp. President Gul of Turkey plans potentially groundbreaking trip to Armenia. Worldwide military expenditures and exports growing dangerously, but still nobody approximates the overwhelming military dominance of the US. UNESCO conference looks at civil society's role in promoting human rights globally. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) offers an expanding toolbox for 'democracy building' practitioners.

Saturday, July 19 2008

International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo requests warrant for Sudanese head of state. Some in the west say President Bashir is 'rattled', but indicators show Sudanese society refusing to bite. Uneasy quiet in Khartoum. Both the rewards and risks of Moreno-Ocampo's strategy were perceived immediately around the world. The warrant will further split international opinion and could antagonize a weak peace process.

Meanwhile, UN missions follow perpetual challenges of peacekeeping with calls for additional mandates (1,2,3). Secretary General Moon plans to name South African jurist Navanethem Pillay as Louise Arbour's replacement as HC for HR.

http://www.peacekeeper.ca/news_mil.html
http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/operations/current_ops_e.asp
http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/newsroom/news_e.asp?cat=&y=&m=&page=1
http://www.idea.int/
http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/cu_mission/body.htm
http://www.carleton.ca/csds/pki/links.htm

Wednesday, June 18 2008

Yesterday a UN envoy for Somalia began meetings with the country's international partners on how to support the Djibouti Agreement, reached last week and designed to bring peace to a state without a functioning government since 1991. ICG warns of possible escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Baghdad asserts sovereignty over occupying US armed forces in new talks with Washington about upcoming two-year 'status of forces agreement'. Further indications of Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan south. Simmering conflict on Georgia's side of the buffer zone, as detained Russian 'peacekeepers' are released. Armed conflict continues between Chad and Sudan largely under the radar. A few hurdles remain before Syria and Israel meet for the first time on July 13th in Paris.