Military Intervention News Log: April 27, 2008

May 03, 2008

Canadian Government beside itself over whether to open direct Taliban talks. Afghan tribal chief arrested in U.S. reveals interconnections between smuggling, terrorism and warlordism. Recent internal audit notes "command and control, fear-inducing, top-down management style" that has long "served as the basis for day-to-day operations" in United Nations bureaucracy. For Russia, the U.S./E.U. stance on statehood for Kosovo overstepped Security Council authority. Meanwhile, the U.S. establishes diplomatic contacts with the leader of Nepal's Maoists. Lacing political will and public endorsement, war crimes trials increasingly unlikely in Serbia.

Middle East Quartet begins last push for two state plan. Living conditions in Gaza City are beyond imagination. 'Publicity politics' mark the China-Sudan uproar, as theatrical protests and flag-waving demonstrators fail to accelerate UNAMID deployment. Do celebrities help? Turkish strikes drift deeper into Iraqi Kurdistan. Congolese rebel Nkunda will confront choice between troop loyalty and fulfilling warrants by the ICC.

Last week's Moscow maneuvering never needed to be explained: preventing NATO accession of Georgia. Are U.S. candidates ignoring the Russian elephant behind the door?Is a two-state partition of Iraq feasible (Part 2)? Basque radicals suspected in detonations near Bilbao. Robert Kagan on the return of ideology in the global political realm.

Georgia/Russia maneuvering looks ready to deteriorate, Tbilisi making moves on the international stage and Moscow becoming masters at peacekeeping politics in separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Meanwhile, Chechnya's Russian Mandarin Kadyrov continues to drift from Moscow's influence.

From Somalian and American officials, Thursday's air strike kills feared and notorious Somali al Qaeda official. Karzai attack hatched partly in Pakistan's FATA, as once-applauded governing coalition begins to splinter and rift between government and military opens further. Work of the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) is effectively shut down after Eritrean intransigence: evidence that peacekeeping is conditioned on stakeholders' political commitment, and a 'blow to blue helmets everywhere'.

Intergenerational political movements that turn over into violence typically produce their own offspring. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon names Hezbollah's military presence as the challenge to Lebanon's Presidential standoff. Confrontational rhetoric against Iran ramped up by US military and administration. (1,2). The impulse to trade is clearing the way for Russia/Serbia-EU co-operation. Is a two-state partition of Iraq inevitable (Part 1)? Taliban presence said to be expanding geographically and sociologically into the heart of Afghanistan. Legitimacy and authority parting ways temporarily in Zimbabwe.

Rwanda is rebuilding partly on memories of tragedy. BBC takes a look at Somalia's insurgents. Upsurge in "honour killings" raises questions about Iraq's new constitution. NATO's Afghanistan mission holds the cities but leaves rural areas largely untouched. Escalation in Sri Lanka shows Tamils highly motivated and tenacious. Vehicle filled with weapons, ammunition and Kosovo Albanians seized by Kosovo police before crossing Macedonian frontier.

Moscow-supported Kadyrov is only a year in power, but today his grip on Chechnya is about to unravel. Hezbollah militias are recruiting heavily, setting sights once again on Lebanon's Israeli border. Following Russian escalation, the view that Georgia is an ally and friend of the United States is filtering through U.S. foreign policy circles: will accelerating NATO membership augment regional security?

Last gasps of Mugabe era in Zimbabwe are forcing us to consider the relative benefits and costs of the five strategies of forcing illegitimate dictators out of power. U.S. Marines re-deploying in Afghanistan signals parallels in military strategy as well as in the nature of evolving conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.