Saturday, November 11, 06

Somalia government rejects parliamentary speaker Adan's back channel attempts avert war by kickstarting Arab League-brokered talks with Islamist rebels. The international community postpones inevitable decision about Kosovo recognition in order to drain support for Serbia's nationalist parties going into January 21 election. Human rights protesters in Maldives call off public protest in Male, as government hints at violent crackdown. Are U.S. Democrats really adopting 'realism'? Doug Saunders begins the consequentialist reckoning of Iraq War II. More evidence over the last month that Pakistan's President Gen. Musharraf is either shrewd or confused: one tribal group in eastern borderlands is granted extensive political independence, and another is bombed into an unstable situation of anti-government extremism and hostility. Canada's JTF2 is a priority for new armed forces growth. In Canada, who will pay the price for expensive Afghanistan peace operation?

Friday, November 10 06 (2)

Warm democratic wishes from the Russian government to the friendly people of Nepal. UNIFIL pushes forward as Lebanese army extends control of southern Lebanon and Israeli military moves toward border. Under-Secretary-General Guehenno reported today that U.N. Peacekeeping Operations posted 81,000 military + police, and 15,000 civilians invovled in 18 missions, under a budget expanding to $7 billion. In this RFE article, South Caucasus expert Laurence Broers explains why dynamically shifting military conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniester don't deserve their common nickname - 'frozen conflicts' of the Caucasus. Remains of 100 new victims of 1995 Srebernica massacre by Bosnian Serb forces are located in eastern Bosnia.

Friday, November 10 06 (1)

A question is looming over the former Yugoslavia: will the international community and UNMIK bring about international recognition of Kosovo against Serbia's constitution? Kosovo Prime Minister Ceku might be prepared to declare independence with or without an agreement. South Ossetia votes for political independence this weekend in referendum #2, but the outcome will be similar to #1: landslide for separation; virtually zero acknowledgement from the international community. Chances for U.S. Iraq operation overhaul increase dramatically after election, as military leaders prepare to lay out 'strategy changes' for Iraq, and anti-war attitudes persist. AU adds six battalions and contingent of police officers to Dafur peacekeeping deployment.

Thursday, November 9 06

Kyrgyzstan's unfolding political breakdown exposes a year's worth of tension between the government of President Bakiev and 'For Reforms!' parliamentary opposition group. Two recent Institute of War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) briefs say that a last-minute constitutional deal could avert more Bishkek streetfighting (1,2). Post-referendum Serbia asserts political identity by denying Kosovo independence aspirations. Atmosphere of 'useful political limbo' resting over Washington may benefit Iraq war planners. Child soldier cases a priority for The Hague's war crimes court (International Criminal Court (ICC)). Maj-Gen. Tommy Burns deserves some credit for 'inventing' peacekeeping back in 1955.

Wednesday, November 8 06

Negotiations between Nepalese government and Maoist insurgents finally yield agreement to put guerrilla arms under U.N. control, as U.N. Secretary General Annan urges both sides to move forward with additional peace talks. UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) illustrates how transition from military to domestic civilian security is decisive in peace operations. Standoff in Ivory Coast, as Ivorian Prime Minister Banny commits to fully support U.N. Resolution 1721 and President Gbagbo threatens to resist. Afghanistan President Karzai practices 'forgive and forget' reconciliation as alliances with former enemies are struck. Is full-scale civil war inevitable in the West Bank and Gaza strip? Celebrating the half-century anniversary of peacekeeping, Annan talks with confidence about peacekeeping's role in the international community. In this Carnegie Council publication, Lilia Shevtsova lays out a framework for internally-driven Russian liberalization.

Tuesday, November 7 06

Forging a stable relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is more difficult than ever in the midst of Pakistan's clandestine 'proxy wars'. Kyrgystan's government opts for force to suppress uprising in Bishkek. Historic competition for political influence now taking place in Central Asia between U.S. and Russian interests. Energy wealth tightens Azerbaijan's ties to EU. Darfur crisis threatens to cross frontier with Chad.

Monday, November 6 06 (3)

Those directly involved in peace operations in Afghanistan and Lebanon are calling for real changes to how Western policy-makers discuss and train for security, policing and nation-building (1,2,3). Not all international NGOs have fled Darfur. Insurgents in Iraq's south are closer than widely understood to declaration of a separate new Islamic state, but U.S. pre-election opinion suggests likely troop reductions. Russia announces the value of 'energy security' for South Ossetians, as its new Dzaurikau-Tskhinvali gas pipeline speaks louder than any peacekeeper could. Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) leader Kony asks for U.N. meeting, likely to suggest exchanging ICC amnesty for peace.

Monday, November 6 06 (2)

Tensions simmering in Kyrgyzstan, where public opinion is beginning to swing against President Bakiev's Constitutional proposals, Bishkek protests are ongoing, accusations continue to fly, and protesters face a crossroads. Now in control of Mogadishu, Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) is converted to nonintervention and 'maximum restraint'. This Toronto Star article suggests that the approach to peacekeeping long-accepted by Canadian decision-makers is reducable to a 'luxury item' and 'charitable endeavor focused on raising our profile' that budget-cutters find an easy target. Taiwan President Chen demonstrates how a democratic society can often withstand powerful challenges to its institutional legitimacy.

Monday, November 6 06 (1)

Coalition locks down Baghdad after Hussein war crimes verdict, but gradually learns lessons about the challenges of policing a hostile population in the long term. Verdict is interpreted as a nation-building milestone, but will go down as 'deeply flawed', and like everything else today in Iraq opinions on it divide strictly on sectarian lines. Here are some projections detailing the economics of military invasion and occupation. As Tajikistan's two-term President Rakhmonov has recently shown, in a fragile democracy the incumbent takes immense advantages to the polls. Lukashenka and Ahmadinead form an unsuprising coalition. Political corruption correlates directly with political instability.