Saturday, October 7 06

U.S. challenges Sudan's threats against countries lending troops to future U.N. Security Council-mandated peace operation, leading to what looks like a retraction by Khartoum, as new reports of civilian suffering accumulate (1,2). In Sri Lanka, two sides agreed to peace talks which could not be expedited before they were sidetracked by new fighting in the east and north. Russia's President Putin asks for wider regional backing of new policy toward Georgia. Somalia's Islamist rebels quickly becoming the dominant faction.

Friday, October 6 06

Moscow's new policy toward neighboring breakaway republics is beginning to come into view (1,2). Ferocious conflict in Uganda remains in limbo. The number of U.N. peacekeeping troops deployed worldwide is growing fast. Guatemalan former-dictator Montt faces possible genocide charges for harsh 80s repression. U.N. Secretary General Annan advances U.N./A.U. compromise, as U.S. government becomes more aggressive with Khartoum.

Thursday, October 5 06

U.S. Army and Marines developing a new doctrine of counterinsurgency and peacebuilding in response to Iraq quagmire. Time to Protect is a project of the well-organized Genocide Intervention Network that illustrates the groundswell surrounding military conflict in Darfur, especially around U.S. university campuses. One recent suggestion for how to get well-equipped peacekeeping troops into Darfur is to give the African Union (AU) U.N. 'financial and logistical support'. Prime Minsiter Kadyrov is quickly forging an identity as Moscow's man in Chechnya. Caucasuses right now are cowering at the idea that Russia-Georgia conflict will worsen. Pledge to participate in peace negotiations fails to stop new raids by Sri Lanka's armed forces and Tamil rebels.

Wednesday, October 4 06 (2)

Georgia is arguably partly responsible for the recent escalation, but it is now directly in Moscow's sights. Seems likely that Russia will seek to remind Tbilisi of where the regional power lies (1,2), and also set a standard for treatment of any other post-Soviet republics cozying up to NATO (1,2). It would be a great legacy for outgoing U.N. Secretary General Annan to develop a 'peaceful and constructive' solution to the impasse. With 5200 of 15000 troops now in southern Lebanon, UNIFIL receives robust new rules of engagement. Here's the Global Guerrillas' typology of state failure and occupation.

Wednesday, October 4 06 (1)

Bosnian election meets democratic standards (1, 2), yet society is divided along ethnic faultlines. Two major figures in the new Bosnian politics Silajdzic and Dodik have different views about the future of the state. In Bosnian war crimes trials 'criminal intent' for genocide prosecutions is virtually impossible to prove. Sri Lanka's Tamil rebels agree to October 28-20 talks in Oslo. Secretary of State Rice makes Washington's position clear: the A.U. force is inadequate, a U.N. force must be created for Darfur. Thailand's new army junta faces challenges from southern rebels. Russia continues refusal to stand down with sanctions and closures of Georgian border.

Tuesday, October 3 06

New reports of Darfur attacks in A.U. report, as the Arab League and European Commission hold talks on who will provide major troops as the international peace operation begins to take shape. An important question - why wasn't the Russia/Georgia espionage crisis handled discretely? Tbilisi's compromise solution so far fails to lower diplomatic tensions. Premier Wen boosts China's peacekeeping troops in Lebanon. U.N. Assistant Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations Jane Holl Lute confirms that state consent is a precondition of military intervention in The Sudan.

Monday, October 2 06

Still-divided Bosnia is building its future on democratic elections. Will Bosnians move to toward ethnic coexistence? The gloves are off as Georgia criticizes Moscow for support of rebels. Surayud is named Prime Minister according to initial timeframe established by Thailand's military rulers. European Commission President Barroso goes to Sudan, and returns with clearer picture of the impasse: Khartoum rejects what it sees as an American-U.N. trojan horse invasion (1,2), and the international community insists on greater U.N. involvement in order to augment and solidify a weak African Union presence. International Crisis Group's (ICG) Crisis Report #38 draws attention to Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo and Somalia as October's military confilt hotspots.