as we approach the tipping point

Syria's Assad regime must wonder if repression can regain control. Defections and encroaching rebels are perilous signs for Qaddafi regime (1, 2, 3). The rebels say that Tripoli is surrounded. A short video about the August 1991 coup d'etat in Russia that nearly succeeded. What if it did succeed? Marc Grossman, U.S. envoy/viceroy in Afghanistan/Pakistan, reflects on 9/11 and Afghan leadership, stating nevertheless that the transition will go ahead on schedule. Rwandan genocide trials produce a tense reconciliation. Noth Korea's Kim Jong-il is received for brief and cool discussions in eastern Russia. In Russia, Syria has a rare friend. The cycle of murder and revenge returns to Gaza in August.   

in the western capitals ...

In Libya, signals of desperation and flight from Qaddafi regime (1,2,3), yet there remains one force in clear control of the capital Tripoli. The rhetoric and balance of force in Afghanistan remains the same throughout Afghanization efforts but now people on the ground pay the price. Washington's war has shifted eastward and skyward. Post-intervention state conflict in Libya is being decided primarily in western capitals, not by Libyans.

This is an editorial argument that Israel's democratic culture is nourished by Arab Spring transformations. In the Balkans, both conflicting signs (1,2), and signs of simmering conflict (1,2), make the continuing saga impossible to predict.        

how did we get here?

When foreign armed forces enter a divided country, unpredictability and mission creep are unavoidable. Today in Libya we are unsure: either successful endgame or locked into stalemate. Rebels may be poised to choke Tripoli, yet Qaddafi remains intransigent and still has military options. Support for Libya's regime stable or in  some regions increasing. U.N. Security Council will consider Palestinian statehood, and Israel and Washington will resist. RFE/RL asks How did the Caucasus become and unholy mess? History has moved along and the state of Bosnia may not continue.