Friday, November 2 07

With the spotlight on Islamabad's more radical insurgents, suppression of Baluchistan's war of national liberation might be the central government's Achilles heel. The International Crisis Group(ICG)'s new CrisisWatch (No.51) warns of deepening militarization in both Pakistan and Ethiopia/Eritrea. Security Council unanimously approves six-month extensions for missions in The Sudan (UNMIS) and Western Sahara (MINURSO). The first should modestly sharpen the mandate of largest yet and first hybrid peace operation, while reinforcing to Khartoum and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) the “importance of full and expeditious implementation of all elements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.” (CPA, 2005). The other should advance negotiations between Morocco and the Frente Polisario about the U.N.-administered territory's future status. The former insurgent and Iraqi Kurd leader Barzani is a state-less nationalist with sufficient clout to tone down U.S.-Turkey-PKK escalation.

Thursday, November 1 07

Somalia is a nation-state with no central government, and in Mogadishu violence never goes away. Afghanistan nears a turning-point, as British ISAF troops are accused of active de-securitization. Humanitarian crisis in Iraq stems directly from a predictable post-totalitarian political vaccuum, not ancient ethno-religious hatred. Why is Europe's role alleviating U.S.-Iran nuclear tensions in disarray? Today, Bosnia-Hersegovina Prime Minister Spiric, the first domestic leader with authority since the end of the 92-95 war, resigned in protest over EU's efforts to streamline post-Dayton governance. Accession criteria comes into focus as Serbia enlists U.S./British help locating fugitive Mladic's Belgrade hideaway. Some Brits are debating whether Saudi's absolute monarch Abdullah is part of the problem, an enlightened reformer, or something else. Thirteen years after war, Azeri refugees from Karabakh question plans to relocate IDP camps currently near Baku.

Wednesday, October 31 07

A second wave of protests by Buddhist monks in Myanmar will be a true test of regime's legitimacy. Without purpose unclear and strategic vision in limbo, "Afghanistan is now NATO's center of gravity and Achilles' heel". After skirmishes between Georgian border guards and Russian "Peacekeepers" along the Georgia-Russia frontier, facts remain unclear and violence is threatens to boil over. Disunity among Darfur rebel factions complicates peace talks taking place Libya.