Friday, November 2 07

With the spotlight on Islamabad's more radical insurgents, suppression of Baluchistan's war of national liberation might be the central government's Achilles heel. The International Crisis Group(ICG)'s new CrisisWatch (No.51) warns of deepening militarization in both Pakistan and Ethiopia/Eritrea. Security Council unanimously approves six-month extensions for missions in The Sudan (UNMIS) and Western Sahara (MINURSO). The first should modestly sharpen the mandate of largest yet and first hybrid peace operation, while reinforcing to Khartoum and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) the “importance of full and expeditious implementation of all elements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.” (CPA, 2005). The other should advance negotiations between Morocco and the Frente Polisario about the U.N.-administered territory's future status. The former insurgent and Iraqi Kurd leader Barzani is a state-less nationalist with sufficient clout to tone down U.S.-Turkey-PKK escalation.

Thursday, November 1 07

Somalia is a nation-state with no central government, and in Mogadishu violence never goes away. Afghanistan nears a turning-point, as British ISAF troops are accused of active de-securitization. Humanitarian crisis in Iraq stems directly from a predictable post-totalitarian political vaccuum, not ancient ethno-religious hatred. Why is Europe's role alleviating U.S.-Iran nuclear tensions in disarray? Today, Bosnia-Hersegovina Prime Minister Spiric, the first domestic leader with authority since the end of the 92-95 war, resigned in protest over EU's efforts to streamline post-Dayton governance. Accession criteria comes into focus as Serbia enlists U.S./British help locating fugitive Mladic's Belgrade hideaway. Some Brits are debating whether Saudi's absolute monarch Abdullah is part of the problem, an enlightened reformer, or something else. Thirteen years after war, Azeri refugees from Karabakh question plans to relocate IDP camps currently near Baku.

Wednesday, October 31 07

A second wave of protests by Buddhist monks in Myanmar will be a true test of regime's legitimacy. Without purpose unclear and strategic vision in limbo, "Afghanistan is now NATO's center of gravity and Achilles' heel". After skirmishes between Georgian border guards and Russian "Peacekeepers" along the Georgia-Russia frontier, facts remain unclear and violence is threatens to boil over. Disunity among Darfur rebel factions complicates peace talks taking place Libya.

Saturday, October 27 07

Conflict scenarios proliferating along the Iraq/Turkey frontier. New military operations demonstrate Pakistan's silent purge strategy against religious radicals. The International Criminal Court (ICC) struggles to walk the line indicting Uganda's war criminals. Turkmenistan's first independence day celebration is an occasion to remember cult-ish former strongman and contemplate who will navigate through the process of reform. Hague Tribunal Chief Prosecutor Del Ponte asks EU ministers to pressure Serbia for information leading to the capture of Mladic and Karadzic.

Monday, August 13 07

Factions in Somalia's civil war guilty of "knowingly and recklessly" targeting noncombatants. U.N. peace operation in Sudan threatens to unravel. (1,2). Philippine offensive against southern militants begins. The Art of War in Darfur. Debate continues inside the beltway on the source of legitimacy of humanitarian military intervention. Warnings of genocidal violence in Baghdad.

Monday, August 6 07

Darfur rebel factions except one now endorse principles of future "power-sharing, wealth-sharing, security arrangements, land and humanitarian issues" (1,2,3), with negotiations scheduled shortly. Deadlock is broken in East Timor, as Gusmao is named P.M., and sporadic violence erupts in Dili. With recognition virtually guaranteed, Serbia announces support for Kosovo's partial sovereignty. Priority of the U.S. military should be to reduce the small arms available in Iraq (1,2). Ivo Daalder and Robert Kagen anchor their liberal interventionism in the U.N. Security Council and/or a broad, bipartisan consensus among the U.S.A.'s democratic partners.

Sunday, August 5 07

This month's Crisis Watch (No. 48) puts the spotlight on peace operation in The Sudan and elections in DR. Congo. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1789 (here's a primer) has already given stakeholders like U.N. Sec. Gen. Ban Ki-moon authority to engage all main factions except the most powerful. The main concern so far is that the force is too weak (1,2), or could fade against Khartoum's opposition. According to Enrique Barón Crespo of the European Parliament, the European Union has a duty to fight for "globalized democracy". Colombo government now prepared to enter talks with Sri Lanka's Tamil rebels.

Thursday, August 2 07

"Largest ever" peacekeeping operation is tasked under the UN Charter's Chapter 7, but nevertheless involves a new, hybridized military intervention. Here is it's operational framework (1), initial announcement by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (2), plus an expanding U.N. news source (3). Allan Gregg ruminates about the links between national identity and peacekeeping in Canada. Just as UNHCR Arbour praises Rwanda's abolition of capital punishment, an expatriate accused of participating in 1994 genocide requests Canadian war crimes prosecutions, citing the potential for human rights abuses in Rwanda. U.N. Sec. Gen. Ban Ki-moon endorses troika cooperation to settle Kosovo tensions.

Tuesday, July 31 07

U.N. Security Council votes to send peacekeepers into The Sudan: but troops will be deployed next year, political momentum is uncertain, and the operation will strictly continue the hybrid model. John Gray strikes a chord announcing the death of "liberal interventionism". U.S. command ignores many lessons with a return to high-altitude strategy in Iraq. Decades-old crimes against humanity by Khmer Rouge prosecuted by U.N. in Cambodia.

Monday, July 30 07

The bottom line "after the Americans leave": local military powers will carve up what's left of the former Iraqi state. The offer by Pakistan's ex-PM Bhutto to "re-balance power" sends the central government toward its tipping point, but signals are increasing that shortsighted strategy of stability by repression will continue. In Afghanistan, NATO increases efforts to protect civilians by contemplating a reduction in weapon loads. The U.N. Security Council shows commitment, extends UNMEE operation Ethiopia/Eritrea. Part of the "failed state phenomena": prosecutions of former regime officials, like recent D.R. Congo trials, prolong the conflict but become the cornerstone of rebuilding.

Friday, July 27 07

Yesterday's report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) on Sudan recommends all-around support for the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)--without multilateral military intervention. The issuing of ICC warrants will bring political change in Khartoum. Foreign Policy's 2007 "Failed States Index" ranks Sudan the worst among 59 other troubled states on 12 indicators of instability. Patience is wearing thin in Kosovo. Here's an excerpt of Chomsky's new book Interventions on the dynamics of Washington-Tehran antagonism. Belarusian regime sets the standard for garden-variety political repression.