Monday, July 30 07

The bottom line "after the Americans leave": local military powers will carve up what's left of the former Iraqi state. The offer by Pakistan's ex-PM Bhutto to "re-balance power" sends the central government toward its tipping point, but signals are increasing that shortsighted strategy of stability by repression will continue. In Afghanistan, NATO increases efforts to protect civilians by contemplating a reduction in weapon loads. The U.N. Security Council shows commitment, extends UNMEE operation Ethiopia/Eritrea. Part of the "failed state phenomena": prosecutions of former regime officials, like recent D.R. Congo trials, prolong the conflict but become the cornerstone of rebuilding.