Bosnia's Serbs plan to take to the streets today to controversially celebrate  "Republika Srpska Day". Where is the world's highest rate of military spending? The answer is NATO countries, where numbers are rising and rising fast. Somali militants are hit by U.S. missile strikes in the fourth such attack this week. United Nations presses Myanmar for progress on Rohingya crisis. Is there a "framework" for U.S. withdrawal of 2000+ troops from fighting ISIS in Syria? Retired General Stanley McChrystal say rapid withdrawal may be riskier than the White House thinks. Is there hope on the horizon after U.N. Peacekeeping forces push further into Mali?

Taliban attacks simultaneously in Paktika and Badghis. Kurdish Official Badran Jia Kurd wants to know American plans for activities in Northern Syria. Jean-Peter Lacroix, Head of DPKO, rightly concerned about Pristina's creation of Kosovo army. The United Nations calls for Pristina and Belgrade to confirm "mutual intentions" for negotiated settlement and less "frequent adversarial actions". Indigenous Canadian pipeline protesters call RCMP presence at blockade an act of war. Early in spring 2019 Iran's Navy will begin patrolling the Atlantic Ocean with its new Sahand Destroyers. ICG says violence is part of federal elections in Nigeria.   

Early Days of 2019

Can United Nations' envoy in Somalia navigate regional tensions and challenges from President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)? Serbian society at war with itself as thousands demonstrate in Belgrade. Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) withdraw to eastern bank of Euphrates at Manbij, with armed forces of Syria, Turkey and the United States poised and observant. Turkey will host 'Trilateral Summit' near end of March in hope of consolidating Afghan peace (1, 2, 3). Ukraine supplements maritime power in Sea of Azov dispute. Ukrainian Orthodox church asks and receives ecclesiastical independence from Moscow Patriarchate. Despite allies' targeting measures, numerous new reports indicate that Joint Task Force Operation Resolve in Syria and Northern Iraq is extremely costly in loss of life. An article on April 2017's U.S.-Syrian missile strike and lessons about responsible statecraft.

A busy day in the towers

No one knows if Doku Umarov is still alive. Last week Peter Haring argued in The Arabist 2011 may bring good things to those who wait. Daghestan's man in Moscow. Everyone gathered for Ban Ki-moon comments today on Syria. Even Iran receives invitation to Geneva talks on Syria ceasefire, but Assad says he's going nowhere. Western sanctions and uranium enrichment tempering in Iran. Can the international community achieve both stability and justice in Lebanon with Hariri assassination passing into history?  That's in the hands of the UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

back from the grave

Modest step toward stability in Damascus-sponsored prisoner exchange. Syrian regime proposes a cease-fire as U.S. Sec. of State Kerry offers assurances. 'Geneva II' is the US/UN/Russian effort to bring both sides to the table and explore peace prospects in Syria. Challenges in today's Lebanon include the challenge of staying alive. Kabul suicide bombing reminds western diplomats who's likely to remain in charge of Afghanistan. Still, the Taliban's return to Afghan dominance will take its own pace. Here the International Crisis Group (ICG) calls for high-profile mediation in Southern Sudan before factions slip into civil war. 

promising new developments

Sec-Gen. Ban-Ki Moon seeks to end conflict and violence in and around the new South Sudan. U.N. post-conflict adviser will smooth the path and open doors for Libya transitional authority. Libyan rebels close in on last Qaddafi strongholds. Here are the International Crisis Group (ICG)'s recommendations for a Smooth and Peaceful Transition to Post Qaddafi Era. U.S. planners now anticipate rising Shia activities in Iraq. Author Thomas Sedlacek argues in this new book that we should take ownership of our collective economic lives. Tony Blair utilizes his envoy role to anticipate conflict that could envelop Palestinian efforts for statehood at the U.N.   

in the political economy of modern war ...

E.U. diplomats announce tougher oil sanctions on Syria (*), roughly four days after Washington announced the same. With the vestiges of the Qaddafi regime going underground, Russian decision-makers can be certain  they put their money behind the wrong tyrant this time. When the 'mouthpieces' fall silent in Libya, foreign diplomats can fill the information void. A Jewish State is not in the way of peace, Lorne Gunter argues in today's National Post, so long as Israel's neighbors continue to make war. Pakistan's Taliban switches recruitment strategy.       

the eye of the needle

Collective relief among NATO leaders as Libya's rebels appear ready to challenge for Tripoli (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7). Combat air patrol over Libya will continue as long as is necessary according to NATO. In this context the Telegraph says: now is the time for us to plan Libya's future. Is there genuine euphoria right now among Libyan the people? The plan in Washington is to get tough on Syria and it's Assad regime. In Damascus, Assad tells interviewers his regime is stable again and back in the saddle. 

Once again the Balkans walk a tightrope as Kosovo-Serbia waltzes towards a moment of great risk. We begin to see the wider historical ripples of Ratko Mladic arrest for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Bosnian civil war. J.L. Granatstein is confused about the new Canadian military-intellectual complex.    

as we approach the tipping point

Syria's Assad regime must wonder if repression can regain control. Defections and encroaching rebels are perilous signs for Qaddafi regime (1, 2, 3). The rebels say that Tripoli is surrounded. A short video about the August 1991 coup d'etat in Russia that nearly succeeded. What if it did succeed? Marc Grossman, U.S. envoy/viceroy in Afghanistan/Pakistan, reflects on 9/11 and Afghan leadership, stating nevertheless that the transition will go ahead on schedule. Rwandan genocide trials produce a tense reconciliation. Noth Korea's Kim Jong-il is received for brief and cool discussions in eastern Russia. In Russia, Syria has a rare friend. The cycle of murder and revenge returns to Gaza in August.   

in the western capitals ...

In Libya, signals of desperation and flight from Qaddafi regime (1,2,3), yet there remains one force in clear control of the capital Tripoli. The rhetoric and balance of force in Afghanistan remains the same throughout Afghanization efforts but now people on the ground pay the price. Washington's war has shifted eastward and skyward. Post-intervention state conflict in Libya is being decided primarily in western capitals, not by Libyans.

This is an editorial argument that Israel's democratic culture is nourished by Arab Spring transformations. In the Balkans, both conflicting signs (1,2), and signs of simmering conflict (1,2), make the continuing saga impossible to predict.        

how did we get here?

When foreign armed forces enter a divided country, unpredictability and mission creep are unavoidable. Today in Libya we are unsure: either successful endgame or locked into stalemate. Rebels may be poised to choke Tripoli, yet Qaddafi remains intransigent and still has military options. Support for Libya's regime stable or in  some regions increasing. U.N. Security Council will consider Palestinian statehood, and Israel and Washington will resist. RFE/RL asks How did the Caucasus become and unholy mess? History has moved along and the state of Bosnia may not continue.