Friday, September 12 08

Georigan President Saakashvili is the consensus scapegoat; now the clock is ticking. South African President Mbeki believes that because yesterday's Zimbabwean power sharing deal was made by Zimbabweans, it is a bargain they will live with. The final jewel in the crown of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is fugitive Ratko Mladic, who is cornered and deeply dug in. High-level UN Panel tackles successes and failures of African peacekeeping.

With US military commanders pondering the future of the Afghan state, troops will certainly increase, and tribal regions of Pakistan will become another battlefield in the war on terror. For come western commentators, 'territorial inviolability' does not apply to the Afghan/Pakistan border. US VP nominee Palin as the new Spartan mother. Canadian PM Harper issues political promise for Canadian withdrawal from Kandahar by late 2011 (1,2).

Tuesday, September 9 08

Surge doctrine suggested against recent Taliban resurgence in southern Afghanistan. US President Bush blames Pakistan for extremism in southern Afghanistan and Pakistan's western tribal regions. NATO military strategists continue to debate their best response to skyrocketing civilian casualties and routine abuses in Afghanistan. Thailand in the grip of a humanitarian intervention nexus: political survival depends on peace, but insurgency pushes leaders toward violence. The future of their government hotly debated in Washington, Iraq's leaders sound desperate about new interest in the 'Biden Resolution' for sectarian partition of Iraq.

The West claims Czech R & Poland under the banner of freedom. The EU shakes hands with the Ukraine. After Russia threatens repeatedly to 'ramp up military presence' inside Georgia and 'remain for a long time' (1,2), Moscow concedes under revised ceasefire to EU Military Observers and outright withdrawal. Russian President Medvedev vows to follow up on recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Inside Georgia, many are questioning how it came to this.

Friday, September 5 08

US VP Cheney vows support and NATO membership for Georgian allies, as many others worry about the 'grim realities' now facing parts of Eastern and Central Europe. Is the EU's 'soft power' sufficient to 'contain' the new Russia? Recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia seemed comparable to that of Kosovo. Are Georgia's separatist regions ready for political Independence? Regional summit in Dushnabe produces quiet recognition that China, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan share Georgia's fears of the 'three evils' of terrorism, separatism and extremism--but also Russia's projection of regional power.

Tentative optimism after August 19 Somalia peace and reconciliation accord. ICG President and ICISS Commissioner Gareth Evans lays out his platform in this presentation on 'Operationalizing the Responsibility to Protect'. Women's rights groups in Iran achieve milestones and face ongoing challenges. Election fever in the US re-shapes military occupation plans for Iraq. In Washington, military leaders maintain right to pursue Al Qaeda outside Afghani borders, but each raid into Pakistan's territory stokes political instability.

Thursday, September 04 2008

US VP Cheney seeks to advance peace and stability by dangling new military technology to battered Georgia. Has the UN Security Council become impotent? Is Russia putting the 'European model' of governance on trial? As the smoke settles, 'Russification' of border towns appears part of the program. Russian President Medvedev has outlined the five principles of Moscow's new foreign policy. Public opinion across Russia is equating condemnation with aggression. US deals with Polish and Czech governments now officially on the fast track.

UN/AU Peacekeeping operation in Darfur (UNAMID) spotlights Sudanese forces allegedly massing around Kalma displacement camp. President Gul of Turkey plans potentially groundbreaking trip to Armenia. Worldwide military expenditures and exports growing dangerously, but still nobody approximates the overwhelming military dominance of the US. UNESCO conference looks at civil society's role in promoting human rights globally. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) offers an expanding toolbox for 'democracy building' practitioners.

Saturday, July 19 2008

International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo requests warrant for Sudanese head of state. Some in the west say President Bashir is 'rattled', but indicators show Sudanese society refusing to bite. Uneasy quiet in Khartoum. Both the rewards and risks of Moreno-Ocampo's strategy were perceived immediately around the world. The warrant will further split international opinion and could antagonize a weak peace process.

Meanwhile, UN missions follow perpetual challenges of peacekeeping with calls for additional mandates (1,2,3). Secretary General Moon plans to name South African jurist Navanethem Pillay as Louise Arbour's replacement as HC for HR.

http://www.peacekeeper.ca/news_mil.html
http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/operations/current_ops_e.asp
http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/newsroom/news_e.asp?cat=&y=&m=&page=1
http://www.idea.int/
http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/cu_mission/body.htm
http://www.carleton.ca/csds/pki/links.htm

Wednesday, June 18 2008

Yesterday a UN envoy for Somalia began meetings with the country's international partners on how to support the Djibouti Agreement, reached last week and designed to bring peace to a state without a functioning government since 1991. ICG warns of possible escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Baghdad asserts sovereignty over occupying US armed forces in new talks with Washington about upcoming two-year 'status of forces agreement'. Further indications of Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan south. Simmering conflict on Georgia's side of the buffer zone, as detained Russian 'peacekeepers' are released. Armed conflict continues between Chad and Sudan largely under the radar. A few hurdles remain before Syria and Israel meet for the first time on July 13th in Paris.

Friday, May 23 08

Heavy optimism bogs down recent Mid-East political discourse. Meanwhile, Israeli military kills 5 militants belonging allegedly to Islamic Jihad along Gaza security fence. President Mikhail Saakashvili appears set to retain power in Tbilisi. UN Secretary General’s Special Representative to Nepal Ian Martin reports to Security Council of 'very significant challenges' on the road to lasting peace and stability. Ban also has reportedly secured unfettered access for experienced aid workers to Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta.

UN arms embargo not getting in the way of civil war in Somalia. Yesterday's press release by Security Council giving stamp of approval to Arab League agreement reached at Doha between Lebanese government and 'anti-government militias', neglects to mention Hezbollah by name. Sadr City back under control of central government after 10,000 Iraqi troops fortify their presence. International Crisis Group (ICG)'s 2008 annual report claims 'a significant role in shaping the debate'.

Saturday, May 10 08

Myanmar junta again seizes humanitarian shipments, as calls intensify among Western officials for military-backed aid delivery inside the borders of an independent state. Has anyone determined whether the junta is distributing aid? Not difficult to foresee why the regime insists emergency workers carry valid passports. US Army assessment outlines future of 'asymmetric threats' and 'irregular warfare'.

Hezbollah agrees to negotiate with Lebanese PM Fuad Siniora on standing down militia control of Beirut, return of government communications facilities. Lebanese government cannot cope with the militias. Serbia heads into elections Sunday, with nationalists and extremists leading a tense contest for this new democracy. Darfur rebels bring the fight toward Khartoum. Islamabad governing coalition gets selective during Washington military envoy appointment, as Pakistani government signs peace agreement with more militants in NW Frontier.

Friday, May 9 08

Beirut declares war on itself once again (1,2,3). UN suspends relief flights into Myanmar after seizure by Junta. UN relief flights quickly resume. Meanwhile. 'humanitarian warriors' like French Kouchner spark debate about bypassing Junta by invoking new 'Responsibility to Protect' doctrine, after which, 'moderate humanitarian warriors' like Ramesh Thakur raise signals of alarm about the R2P doctrine becoming overstretched.

Civil war in Somalia hardly a domestic conflict, frustrated constantly by foreign wrangling. Three months after declaration, parts of Kosovo remain deeply divided, geopolitical tensions approach boiling point, and world military powers ponder which side to back. Iraq war debate presently dominated by cold blooded calculations.

Thursday, May 8 08

Troubles reappear in Islamabad and across Pakistan. As Tbilisi warns once again of 'formidable adversary' Russia amassing for two-front war, US Congress begins to stonewall. Why is the classic 'frozen conflict' heating up this spring? One hardly needs to ask. EU global human rights policies are coming up for reevaluation. In Dharmsala, Dalai Lama's representatives and Chinese Government officials begin exchange of 'concrete proposals'. Military justice appears slippery in the case of US Marine Sergeant originally sentenced to 15 years for kidnapping and murdering Iraqi civilian. According to polling by the War and Peace Index, Israelis perceive war on the horizon.

Tuesday, May 6 08

'Fighting well' no longer about winning, says Canadian Major Gen. Beare of CFB Kingston's Land Force Doctrine and Training System. Israel's 60th stimulates much reflection on mid-east conflict and relationships to geopolitics and Western power (1,2,3,4). China's so-called 'next generation nationalists' give some illustration of powerful feelings of national pride persisting in conditions of widespread human rights repression.

Here's how ELAM Tigers colonized Canada's electoral system to fund insurgency. The new immorality of the Iraqi occupation: fearing political setbacks, Washington must opt for 'diehard' victory against the insurgency, even as experts warn that diplomacy alone can enable reconstruction of Iraq's now-severely fractured society. In the American anti-Iraq discourse, the usual suspects are once again saying 'never again' about acts of military aggression. With US primaries absorbing American political life, Russia sends clearly ambiguous message about intention to invade Abkhazia.