how did we get here?

When foreign armed forces enter a divided country, unpredictability and mission creep are unavoidable. Today in Libya we are unsure: either successful endgame or locked into stalemate. Rebels may be poised to choke Tripoli, yet Qaddafi remains intransigent and still has military options. Support for Libya's regime stable or in  some regions increasing. U.N. Security Council will consider Palestinian statehood, and Israel and Washington will resist. RFE/RL asks How did the Caucasus become and unholy mess? History has moved along and the state of Bosnia may not continue. 

once you're in ...

Canadian military stuck in Libya for the near term. Canadian Defense Minister McKay strangely announces millions for 'dining rooms' on some home military bases. Refugee claims from 'Arab spring countries' beginning to rise in Canada. Here is a Whig-Standard in-depth analysis of Canada's military activities in the Arctic Circle. Is this hockey logo indicative of Canada's new militarism? The United Nations is geared up to slim down this year and next. How to balance personal freedoms, social order, after four nights of lawlessness in Britain. Qaddafi regime divided on endgame, but NATO still views this as unpredictable as it continues to arm rebel militias, who set their sights on key towns. The roots of a revolution: Russia/1991 and Tahrir Square/2011.  

no short supply of hypocracy

As Syrian government presses its assault, Damascus receives dressing down from neighbors Turkey and Saudi Arabia (1, 2). Who said ISAF operations were to wind down? The Taliban takes credit for helicopter attacks in Afghanistan. Roadblocks and border checkpoints return in Kosovo. Amid the famine, Mogadishu returns to the control of Somali troops.  Rebels claim Libyan town of Bir al-Ghanam. Will U.N. attention to Palestinian question bring about peace or 'unprecedented bloodshed'? The L.A. Times warns us of dangerous overconfidence after Bin Laden assassination.     

dog days of august upon us

In Syria, the Damascus regime prepares for fall 'offensive' against rebel-dominated areas, as protesters demand international action. Somalia's politics of humanitarian assistance: insurgents block famine refugees. The fall begins in the middle east with gunfire across the Israel/Lebanon border. Israel puts its strength on display. Georgia will soon choose between orderly Presidential transition and dangerous breakdown. International Crisis Group (ICG) gauges the current situation in the new South Sudan.      

the fall season as catalyst

Libyan Rebel Leaders continue to consolidate as they unmask 'secret pro-Qaddafi' fifth column, which makes  European governments wary of who they now back militarily. This invasion is the new definition for 'mission creep'. In Syria, Washington condemns 'brutal' regime attacks. The fall season surely will surely catalyze the conflict and Syria will not remain fragmented. Post-9/11 Detainee Lawyer Sohail Mohammed becomes new New Jersey Superior Court Judge, despite open concerns about possible Sharia agenda. Violence and suicide bombings continue to follow NATO handover of security responsibilities. But the murdered Mayor of Kandahar fought corruption over radicalism. New article in Small Wars Journal asks how the U.S. became a nation of warriors...

Plot thickens in Libya as U.K. dismisses Libyan/Qaddafi diplomatic staff, and recognizes rebels as 'sole authority in Libya'. Is this a 'war of choice'? The situation remains complex and unpredictable on the ground, as NATO looks for a way out and the International Criminal Court (ICC) refuses Quaddafi compromise. Geopolitics spurs famine in the Horn of Africa. War crimes website grows in popularity. Some say Ottawa is the source of 'creeping militarism'. In Afghanistan, another suicide attack kills Kandahar Mayor.      

Syrian regime continues slow-motion suicide. Military sustains its rule in Egypt. Food and aid is delivered by U.N. to crisis areas in Somalia. Could be a victory march beginning to gain momentum in Brega, Libya. Doug Saunders argues today in the Globe and Mail that the feeling of unity and common purpose vanishes the day the tyrant is gone. The U.N. continues its work on the ground in Tunisia.      

Let the transitions begin

Libya's Gaddafi sends early signals of departure before fall, as U.S. Secretary of State Clinton hand-delivers recognition of National Transitional Council. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Baird enthuses about the NTC rebels, then contemplates a new embassy and a big loan from seized Gaddafi funds. The United Nations grasps the theme of 'political transition' in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan. South Sudan in particular is the U.N.'s most important arms decommissioning project.        

Optimism turns to...

President Bashir proclaims a 'second republic' in Sudan. Foreign Policy looks afresh at failed states and how they threaten U.S. security. Cairo's Tahrir Square sees renewed protests after military postpones elections. Human Rights Watch reports crimes by rebel forces in Libya. Today in Afghanistan, Karzai attempts to regroup in the South. With Canadians out of Kandahar, will the Taliban accept Karzai's plea to lay down their arms?

Back from the dead.

South Sudan: the world's newest country is soon to get its new currency, and no sign of a new perspective coming out of Khartoum. In an International Crisis Group (ICG) report, more questions than answers about Syria's uprising and the regime's surprising response. Canada's un-celebratory close of operations in Afghanistan urges us to ask: should this world-class military return to base as border tensions continue unabated. The tense politics of military aid plays out between U.S. + Pakistan. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton recognizes Assad's illegitimacy. George Monbiot argues for journalists' pledge like Hippocratic oath to hold power to account. Is there another side to the sordid story? Post-invasion Mosul may mark a combustible province Iraq.    

Friday, September 12 08

Georigan President Saakashvili is the consensus scapegoat; now the clock is ticking. South African President Mbeki believes that because yesterday's Zimbabwean power sharing deal was made by Zimbabweans, it is a bargain they will live with. The final jewel in the crown of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is fugitive Ratko Mladic, who is cornered and deeply dug in. High-level UN Panel tackles successes and failures of African peacekeeping.

With US military commanders pondering the future of the Afghan state, troops will certainly increase, and tribal regions of Pakistan will become another battlefield in the war on terror. For come western commentators, 'territorial inviolability' does not apply to the Afghan/Pakistan border. US VP nominee Palin as the new Spartan mother. Canadian PM Harper issues political promise for Canadian withdrawal from Kandahar by late 2011 (1,2).