Military Intervention News Log

April 24, 2008

Disputed Darfur civilian death count by U.N. immediately makes headlines (1,2). Georgia receives assurances of U.S. Government's commitment to territorial integrity and state sovereignty. Pakistan's military presence in NW tribal areas has lowered volatility and made terrorist attacks less frequent. Ethiopia denounces Qatar publicly for covertly supporting insurgents. Massive U.S. embassy in Baghdad becoming an unsettling symbol for Iraqis. Uganda's peace process is falling apart, as the LRA re-groups for battle. The Canadian military underestimated the Afghan quagmire, where it will indefinitely remain.

In Sudan, efforts to accelerate deployment of co-ordinated U.N./A.U. forces as mandated in Security Council Resolution 1590 (March 05) continue, the Darfur crisis only worsens, with UNMIS too weak to provide safety to aid workers. Zimbabwe's crisis exemplifies the 21st century struggle for political freedom. U.N. human rights expert Ghanim Alnajjar condemns killings of civilian religious leaders in Somalia, calling for expeditious and impartial investigations.

Kosovo's February 17th unilateral declaration and official recognition generated considerable anger inside Serbia. With Serbian parliamentary and local elections set for May 11, questions surface: Will Western-friendly democrats prevail or unfriendly socialists? Will NGOs and Westerns governments have leverage? Will the new leadership respond to possible offers of rapprochement by Washington/Brussells? Meanwhile, with the new precedent in firmly hand, Russia plows forward by recognizing Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, against protest and bellicose announcements.

U.N.'s Monday deadline for resolving Kosovo's political status approaches, as the international community's 'unfinished business' there gives rise to fears of a new Balkan war. If NATO's 26 don't act after today's last minute talks, their wrangling and worrying over Moscow's growing influence (1, 2) will lead unnecessarily to threatening rhetoric and securitization. One hopes the ICG's "Kosovo Blueprint" finds its way to Brussels. The outcry has faded, and the junta's grip remains firm; have Myanmar's Generals weathered the storm?

After a year or more of Darfur in the epicentre of the global political spotlight, the interests of vulnerable and impoverished civilians, caught between the government and warring factions, threaten to submerge. International justice unfolds at glacial speed, as the International Criminal Court in Tanzania renders former Rwandan provincial Governor Karera guilty of genocide and crimes against humanity. Different conflicts reveal an identical pattern, as Pakistan's Musharraf and Chechnya's Kadyrov flirt with radicals to retain domestic standing.

Lebanon's political deadlock makes General Suleiman the likely choice as a new consensus head of state. Star power pushed Darfur into the headlines, yet civil wars of equal brutality in Sri Lanka and Ethiopia's Ogaden continue to ravage civilians under the radar. The politics of humanitarian intervention plays right into Sudanese government's hands. Iranian President Ahmadinejad appeals to Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) for "peace and security without foreign intervention". Strong criticism and suggestions of future instability plague Russian parliamentary vote. Is there no difference between falling short of OSCE standards and outright election-rigging? In Canada, Privy Council purse strings are tightening as Afghan mission costs go through the roof.

Is there consensus or simply headlines in Annapolis? The politics of humanitarianism in Africa ignore Somalian civilians in harms way (1,2). A new International Crisis Group (ICG) report suggests that 2006's Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) is quickly falling apart, as Darfur rebels predictably challenge the neutrality of Chinese military contribution. With recent heavy-handedness, is Russian President Putin suppressing the peoples' will (1,2,3)? Last week's labor victory will usher change in Australian Iraq policy.

Return of Sharif to Lahore is followed by Musharraf vow to rule Pakistan as a civilian(1,2) Withdrawal of U.S. troops set to begin as Iraq 'surge' is declared a virtual success. Annapolis negotiations showing how extremism can't be ignored after success at the polls. For many this is little more than "posing for peace". U.S. military now recognizes the link between peace enforcement, nation-building and "local knowledge". Dayton architect Holbrooke remains pessimistic about averting war following Kosovo's upcoming UDI from Serbia. Security Council rubberstamps ostensibly permanent E.U. peace operation (EUFOR) in Bosnia. New riot police crackdowns and political arrests raise fears among pro-democracy activists--in St. Petersburg.

Darfur negotiations are failing to overcome the immediate obstacles. Pakistan crisis deepens with election delay. Previously a democratic saviour Georgian President Saakashvili cracks down hard before moving ahead general election date. Could this be a beginning of dialogue in Myanmar? A solution in Transdniester/Moldova may soon unfold. U.N. mission in Timor-Leste optimistic after human rights report. Secretary General Moon remains engaged on Ethiopia/Eritrea border dispute calling attention to troop buildup and military exercises.

Addis Ababa has closed down relief efforts in Ethiopia's insurgent Ogaden region weeks ago, so the U.N. will establish a local humanitarian presence. Secretary General Moon's philosophy begins to come into view: i) with a challenge to Burmese military leaders for intransigence and the sidestepping of U.N. official visits; ii) then with announcement to re-vamp U.N. Department of Political Affairs (DPA) for rapid and proactive "crisis diplomacy"; iii) then finally with commitment to regional organizations as a key to resolving conflict in the long term. Command responsibility is once again the legal issue as former Serbian nationalist leader Vojislav Seselj faces life in prison at Hague criminal trial. Demise of Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) deputy Otti is the likely outcome of International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant and strong local support for Ugandan justice. Stability in West Africa requires "regional collaboration". U.N. Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) continues to monitor last year's agreement, as former Maoist rebels and central regime wait for violence to re-ignite. Bhutto issues her ultimatum (1,2).

Pakistani President Musharraf's gambles to re-shape his state in advance of January election. Here's the BBC's roster of major factions and the text of Musharraf's "emergency proclamation". Kosovo problem has forced U.S./Rus/E.U. quartet to push for new sovereignty framework(s). Will international recognition inevitably turn over into greater separatist demands? Surging public discontent re-appears in Georgia, threatening to unseat President Saakashvili. Afghanistan's north is awash with weaponry and informal factional networks.