Sunday, November 25 07

Return of Sharif to Lahore is followed by Musharraf vow to rule Pakistan as a civilian(1,2) Withdrawal of U.S. troops set to begin as Iraq 'surge' is declared a virtual success. Annapolis negotiations showing how extremism can't be ignored after success at the polls. For many this is little more than "posing for peace". U.S. military now recognizes the link between peace enforcement, nation-building and "local knowledge". Dayton architect Holbrooke remains pessimistic about averting war following Kosovo's upcoming UDI from Serbia. Security Council rubberstamps ostensibly permanent E.U. peace operation (EUFOR) in Bosnia. New riot police crackdowns and political arrests raise fears among pro-democracy activists--in St. Petersburg.

Thursday, November 8 07

Darfur negotiations are failing to overcome the immediate obstacles. Pakistan crisis deepens with election delay. Previously a democratic saviour Georgian President Saakashvili cracks down hard before moving ahead general election date. Could this be a beginning of dialogue in Myanmar? A solution in Transdniester/Moldova may soon unfold. U.N. mission in Timor-Leste optimistic after human rights report. Secretary General Moon remains engaged on Ethiopia/Eritrea border dispute calling attention to troop buildup and military exercises.

Wednesday, November 7 07

Addis Ababa has closed down relief efforts in Ethiopia's insurgent Ogaden region weeks ago, so the U.N. will establish a local humanitarian presence. Secretary General Moon's philosophy begins to come into view: i) with a challenge to Burmese military leaders for intransigence and the sidestepping of U.N. official visits; ii) then with announcement to re-vamp U.N. Department of Political Affairs (DPA) for rapid and proactive "crisis diplomacy"; iii) then finally with commitment to regional organizations as a key to resolving conflict in the long term. Command responsibility is once again the legal issue as former Serbian nationalist leader Vojislav Seselj faces life in prison at Hague criminal trial. Demise of Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) deputy Otti is the likely outcome of International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant and strong local support for Ugandan justice. Stability in West Africa requires "regional collaboration". U.N. Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) continues to monitor last year's agreement, as former Maoist rebels and central regime wait for violence to re-ignite. Bhutto issues her ultimatum (1,2).

Monday, November 5 07

Pakistani President Musharraf's gambles to re-shape his state in advance of January election. Here's the BBC's roster of major factions and the text of Musharraf's "emergency proclamation". Kosovo problem has forced U.S./Rus/E.U. quartet to push for new sovereignty framework(s). Will international recognition inevitably turn over into greater separatist demands? Surging public discontent re-appears in Georgia, threatening to unseat President Saakashvili. Afghanistan's north is awash with weaponry and informal factional networks.

Friday, November 2 07

With the spotlight on Islamabad's more radical insurgents, suppression of Baluchistan's war of national liberation might be the central government's Achilles heel. The International Crisis Group(ICG)'s new CrisisWatch (No.51) warns of deepening militarization in both Pakistan and Ethiopia/Eritrea. Security Council unanimously approves six-month extensions for missions in The Sudan (UNMIS) and Western Sahara (MINURSO). The first should modestly sharpen the mandate of largest yet and first hybrid peace operation, while reinforcing to Khartoum and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) the “importance of full and expeditious implementation of all elements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.” (CPA, 2005). The other should advance negotiations between Morocco and the Frente Polisario about the U.N.-administered territory's future status. The former insurgent and Iraqi Kurd leader Barzani is a state-less nationalist with sufficient clout to tone down U.S.-Turkey-PKK escalation.

Thursday, November 1 07

Somalia is a nation-state with no central government, and in Mogadishu violence never goes away. Afghanistan nears a turning-point, as British ISAF troops are accused of active de-securitization. Humanitarian crisis in Iraq stems directly from a predictable post-totalitarian political vaccuum, not ancient ethno-religious hatred. Why is Europe's role alleviating U.S.-Iran nuclear tensions in disarray? Today, Bosnia-Hersegovina Prime Minister Spiric, the first domestic leader with authority since the end of the 92-95 war, resigned in protest over EU's efforts to streamline post-Dayton governance. Accession criteria comes into focus as Serbia enlists U.S./British help locating fugitive Mladic's Belgrade hideaway. Some Brits are debating whether Saudi's absolute monarch Abdullah is part of the problem, an enlightened reformer, or something else. Thirteen years after war, Azeri refugees from Karabakh question plans to relocate IDP camps currently near Baku.

Wednesday, October 31 07

A second wave of protests by Buddhist monks in Myanmar will be a true test of regime's legitimacy. Without purpose unclear and strategic vision in limbo, "Afghanistan is now NATO's center of gravity and Achilles' heel". After skirmishes between Georgian border guards and Russian "Peacekeepers" along the Georgia-Russia frontier, facts remain unclear and violence is threatens to boil over. Disunity among Darfur rebel factions complicates peace talks taking place Libya.

Saturday, October 27 07

Conflict scenarios proliferating along the Iraq/Turkey frontier. New military operations demonstrate Pakistan's silent purge strategy against religious radicals. The International Criminal Court (ICC) struggles to walk the line indicting Uganda's war criminals. Turkmenistan's first independence day celebration is an occasion to remember cult-ish former strongman and contemplate who will navigate through the process of reform. Hague Tribunal Chief Prosecutor Del Ponte asks EU ministers to pressure Serbia for information leading to the capture of Mladic and Karadzic.

Monday, August 13 07

Factions in Somalia's civil war guilty of "knowingly and recklessly" targeting noncombatants. U.N. peace operation in Sudan threatens to unravel. (1,2). Philippine offensive against southern militants begins. The Art of War in Darfur. Debate continues inside the beltway on the source of legitimacy of humanitarian military intervention. Warnings of genocidal violence in Baghdad.

Monday, August 6 07

Darfur rebel factions except one now endorse principles of future "power-sharing, wealth-sharing, security arrangements, land and humanitarian issues" (1,2,3), with negotiations scheduled shortly. Deadlock is broken in East Timor, as Gusmao is named P.M., and sporadic violence erupts in Dili. With recognition virtually guaranteed, Serbia announces support for Kosovo's partial sovereignty. Priority of the U.S. military should be to reduce the small arms available in Iraq (1,2). Ivo Daalder and Robert Kagen anchor their liberal interventionism in the U.N. Security Council and/or a broad, bipartisan consensus among the U.S.A.'s democratic partners.

Sunday, August 5 07

This month's Crisis Watch (No. 48) puts the spotlight on peace operation in The Sudan and elections in DR. Congo. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1789 (here's a primer) has already given stakeholders like U.N. Sec. Gen. Ban Ki-moon authority to engage all main factions except the most powerful. The main concern so far is that the force is too weak (1,2), or could fade against Khartoum's opposition. According to Enrique Barón Crespo of the European Parliament, the European Union has a duty to fight for "globalized democracy". Colombo government now prepared to enter talks with Sri Lanka's Tamil rebels.