Military Intervention News Log

promising new developments

2011-09-04T17:08:00.000-04:00

Sec-Gen. Ban-Ki Moon seeks to end conflict and violence in and around the new South Sudan. U.N. post-conflict adviser will smooth the path and open doors for Libya transitional authority. Libyan rebels close in on last Qaddafi strongholds. Here are the International Crisis Group (ICG)'s recommendations for a Smooth and Peaceful Transition to Post Qaddafi Era. U.S. planners now anticipate rising Shia activities in Iraq. Author Thomas Sedlacek argues in this new book that we should take ownership of our collective economic lives. Tony Blair utilizes his envoy role to anticipate conflict that could envelop Palestinian efforts for statehood at the U.N.

in the political economy of modern war ...

2011-09-03T14:12:00.000-04:00

E.U. diplomats announce tougher oil sanctions on Syria (*), roughly four days after Washington announced the same. With the vestiges of the Qaddafi regime going underground, Russian decision-makers can be certain they put their money behind the wrong tyrant this time. When the 'mouthpieces' fall silent in Libya, foreign diplomats can fill the information void. A Jewish State is not in the way of peace, Lorne Gunter argues in today's National Post, so long as Israel's neighbors continue to make war. Pakistan's Taliban switches recruitment strategy.

the eye of the needle

2011-08-22T12:24:00.000-04:00

Collective relief among NATO leaders as Libya's rebels appear ready to challenge for Tripoli (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7). Combat air patrol over Libya will continue as long as is necessary according to NATO. In this context the Telegraph says: now is the time for us to plan Libya's future. Is there genuine euphoria right now among Libyan the people? The plan in Washington is to get tough on Syria and it's Assad regime. In Damascus, Assad tells interviewers his regime is stable again and back in the saddle.

Once again the Balkans walk a tightrope as Kosovo-Serbia waltzes towards a moment of great risk. We begin to see the wider historical ripples of Ratko Mladic arrest for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Bosnian civil war. J.L. Granatstein is confused about the new Canadian military-intellectual complex.

as we approach the tipping point

2011-08-20T16:50:00.000-04:00

Syria's Assad regime must wonder if repression can regain control. Defections and encroaching rebels are perilous signs for Qaddafi regime (1, 2, 3). The rebels say that Tripoli is surrounded. A short video about the August 1991 coup d'etat in Russia that nearly succeeded. What if it did succeed? Marc Grossman, U.S. envoy/viceroy in Afghanistan/Pakistan, reflects on 9/11 and Afghan leadership, stating nevertheless that the transition will go ahead on schedule. Rwandan genocide trials produce a tense reconciliation. Noth Korea's Kim Jong-il is received for brief and cool discussions in eastern Russia. In Russia, Syria has a rare friend. The cycle of murder and revenge returns to Gaza in August.

in the western capitals ...

2011-08-16T15:07:00.000-04:00

In Libya, signals of desperation and flight from Qaddafi regime (1,2,3), yet there remains one force in clear control of the capital Tripoli. The rhetoric and balance of force in Afghanistan remains the same throughout Afghanization efforts but now people on the ground pay the price. Washington's war has shifted eastward and skyward. Post-intervention state conflict in Libya is being decided primarily in western capitals, not by Libyans.

This is an editorial argument that Israel's democratic culture is nourished by Arab Spring transformations. In the Balkans, both conflicting signs (1,2), and signs of simmering conflict (1,2), make the continuing saga impossible to predict.

how did we get here?

2011-08-15T13:43:00.000-04:00

When foreign armed forces enter a divided country, unpredictability and mission creep are unavoidable. Today in Libya we are unsure: either successful endgame or locked into stalemate. Rebels may be poised to choke Tripoli, yet Qaddafi remains intransigent and still has military options. Support for Libya's regime stable or in some regions increasing. U.N. Security Council will consider Palestinian statehood, and Israel and Washington will resist. RFE/RL asks How did the Caucasus become and unholy mess? History has moved along and the state of Bosnia may not continue.

once you're in it's never easy to pull out

2011-08-13T15:02:00.000-04:00

Canadian military stuck in Libya for the near term. Canadian Defense Minister McKay strangely announces millions for 'dining rooms' on some home military bases. Refugee claims from 'Arab spring countries' beginning to rise in Canada. Here is a Whig-Standard in-depth analysis of Canada's military activities in the Arctic Circle. Is this hockey logo indicative of Canada's new militarism? The United Nations is geared up to slim down this year and next. How to balance personal freedoms, social order, after four nights of lawlessness in Britain. Qaddafi regime divided on endgame, but NATO still views this as unpredictable as it continues to arm rebel militias, who set their sights on key towns. The roots of a revolution: Russia/1991 and Tahrir Square/2011.

no short supply of hypocracy

2011-08-07T22:02:00.000-04:00

As Syrian government presses its assault, Damascus receives dressing down from neighbors Turkey and Saudi Arabia (1, 2). Who said ISAF operations were to wind down? The Taliban takes credit for helicopter attacks in Afghanistan. Roadblocks and border checkpoints return in Kosovo. Amid the famine, Mogadishu returns to the control of Somali troops. Rebels claim Libyan town of Bir al-Ghanam. Will U.N. attention to Palestinian question bring about peace or 'unprecedented bloodshed'? The L.A. Times warns us of dangerous overconfidence after Bin Laden assassination.

dog days of august upon us

2011-08-02T01:26:00.000-04:00

In Syria, the Damascus regime prepares for fall 'offensive' against rebel-dominated areas, as protesters demand international action. Somalia's politics of humanitarian assistance: insurgents block famine refugees. The fall begins in the middle east with gunfire across the Israel/Lebanon border. Israel puts its strength on display. Georgia will soon choose between orderly Presidential transition and dangerous breakdown. International Crisis Group (ICG) gauges the current situation in the new South Sudan.

the fall season as catalyst

2011-08-01T01:55:00.000-04:00

Libyan Rebel Leaders continue to consolidate as they unmask 'secret pro-Qaddafi' fifth column, which makes European governments wary of who they now back militarily. This invasion is the new definition for 'mission creep'. In Syria, Washington condemns 'brutal' regime attacks. The fall season surely will surely catalyze the conflict and Syria will not remain fragmented. Post-9/11 Detainee Lawyer Sohail Mohammed becomes new New Jersey Superior Court Judge, despite open concerns about possible Sharia agenda. Violence and suicide bombings continue to follow NATO handover of security responsibilities. But the murdered Mayor of Kandahar fought corruption over radicalism. New article in Small Wars Journal asks how the U.S. became a nation of warriors...

2011-07-27T16:32:00.000-04:00

Plot thickens in Libya as U.K. dismisses Libyan/Qaddafi diplomatic staff, and recognizes rebels as 'sole authority in Libya'. Is this a 'war of choice'? The situation remains complex and unpredictable on the ground, as NATO looks for a way out and the International Criminal Court (ICC) refuses Quaddafi compromise. Geopolitics spurs famine in the Horn of Africa. War crimes website grows in popularity. Some say Ottawa is the source of 'creeping militarism'. In Afghanistan, another suicide attack kills Kandahar Mayor.

2011-07-16T23:11:00.000-04:00

Syrian regime continues slow-motion suicide. Military sustains its rule in Egypt. Food and aid is delivered by U.N. to crisis areas in Somalia. Could be a victory march beginning to gain momentum in Brega, Libya. Doug Saunders argues today in the Globe and Mail that the feeling of unity and common purpose vanishes the day the tyrant is gone. The U.N. continues its work on the ground in Tunisia.

Let the transitions begin

2011-07-15T18:41:00.000-04:00

Libya's Gaddafi sends early signals of departure before fall, as U.S. Secretary of State Clinton hand-delivers recognition of National Transitional Council. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Baird enthuses about the NTC rebels, then contemplates a new embassy and a big loan from seized Gaddafi funds. The United Nations grasps the theme of 'political transition' in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan. South Sudan in particular is the U.N.'s most important arms decommissioning project.

Optimism turns to...

2011-07-14T00:54:00.002-04:00

President Bashir proclaims a 'second republic' in Sudan. Foreign Policy looks afresh at failed states and how they threaten U.S. security. Cairo's Tahrir Square sees renewed protests after military postpones elections. Human Rights Watch reports crimes by rebel forces in Libya. Today in Afghanistan, Karzai attempts to regroup in the South. With Canadians out of Kandahar, will the Taliban accept Karzai's plea to lay down their arms?

Back from the dead.

2011-07-12T00:01:00.001-04:00

South Sudan: the world's newest country is soon to get its new currency, and no sign of a new perspective coming out of Khartoum. In an International Crisis Group (ICG) report, more questions than answers about Syria's uprising and the regime's surprising response. Canada's un-celebratory close of operations in Afghanistan urges us to ask: should this world-class military return to base as border tensions continue unabated. The tense politics of military aid plays out between U.S. + Pakistan. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton recognizes Assad's illegitimacy. George Monbiot argues for journalists' pledge like Hippocratic oath to hold power to account. Is there another side to the sordid story? Post-invasion Mosul may mark a combustible province Iraq.

Friday, September 12 08

2008-09-12T16:13:00.004-04:00

Georigan President Saakashvili is the consensus scapegoat; now the clock is ticking. South African President Mbeki believes that because yesterday's Zimbabwean power sharing deal was made by Zimbabweans, it is a bargain they will live with. The final jewel in the crown of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is fugitive Ratko Mladic, who is cornered and deeply dug in. High-level UN Panel tackles successes and failures of African peacekeeping.

With US military commanders pondering the future of the Afghan state, troops will certainly increase, and tribal regions of Pakistan will become another battlefield in the war on terror. For come western commentators, 'territorial inviolability' does not apply to the Afghan/Pakistan border. US VP nominee Palin as the new Spartan mother. Canadian PM Harper issues political promise for Canadian withdrawal from Kandahar by late 2011 (1,2).

Tuesday, September 9 08

2008-09-09T21:35:00.002-04:00

Surge doctrine suggested against recent Taliban resurgence in southern Afghanistan. US President Bush blames Pakistan for extremism in southern Afghanistan and Pakistan's western tribal regions. NATO military strategists continue to debate their best response to skyrocketing civilian casualties and routine abuses in Afghanistan. Thailand in the grip of a humanitarian intervention nexus: political survival depends on peace, but insurgency pushes leaders toward violence. The future of their government hotly debated in Washington, Iraq's leaders sound desperate about new interest in the 'Biden Resolution ' for sectarian partition of Iraq.

The West claims Czech R & Poland under the banner of freedom. The EU shakes hands with the Ukraine. After Russia threatens repeatedly to 'ramp up military presence' inside Georgia and 'remain for a long time' (1,2), Moscow concedes under revised ceasefire to EU Military Observers and outright withdrawal. Russian President Medvedev vows to follow up on recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Inside Georgia, many are questioning how it came to this.

Friday, September 5 08

2008-09-05T13:18:00.002-04:00

US VP Cheney vows support and NATO membership for Georgian allies, as many others worry about the 'grim realities' now facing parts of Eastern and Central Europe. Is the EU's 'soft power' sufficient to 'contain' the new Russia? Recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia seemed comparable to that of Kosovo. Are Georgia's separatist regions ready for political Independence? Regional summit in Dushnabe produces quiet recognition that China, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan share Georgia's fears of the 'three evils' of terrorism, separatism and extremism--but also Russia's projection of regional power.

Tentative optimism after August 19 Somalia peace and reconciliation accord. ICG President and ICISS Commissioner Gareth Evans lays out his platform in this presentation on 'Operationalizing the Responsibility to Protect'. Women's rights groups in Iran achieve milestones and face ongoing challenges. Election fever in the US re-shapes military occupation plans for Iraq. In Washington, military leaders maintain right to pursue Al Qaeda outside Afghani borders, but each raid into Pakistan's territory stokes political instability.

Thursday, September 04 2008

2008-09-04T12:30:00.003-04:00

US VP Cheney seeks to advance peace and stability by dangling new military technology to battered Georgia. Has the UN Security Council become impotent? Is Russia putting the 'European model' of governance on trial? As the smoke settles, 'Russification' of border towns appears part of the program. Russian President Medvedev has outlined the five principles of Moscow's new foreign policy. Public opinion across Russia is equating condemnation with aggression. US deals with Polish and Czech governments now officially on the fast track.

UN/AU Peacekeeping operation in Darfur (UNAMID) spotlights Sudanese forces allegedly massing around Kalma displacement camp. President Gul of Turkey plans potentially groundbreaking trip to Armenia. Worldwide military expenditures and exports growing dangerously, but still nobody approximates the overwhelming military dominance of the US. UNESCO conference looks at civil society's role in promoting human rights globally. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) offers an expanding toolbox for 'democracy building' practitioners.

Saturday, July 19 2008

2008-07-19T12:05:00.002-04:00

International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo requests warrant for Sudanese head of state. Some in the west say President Bashir is 'rattled', but indicators show Sudanese society refusing to bite. Uneasy quiet in Khartoum. Both the rewards and risks of Moreno-Ocampo's strategy were perceived immediately around the world. The warrant will further split international opinion and could antagonize a weak peace process.

Meanwhile, UN missions follow perpetual challenges of peacekeeping with calls for additional mandates (1,2,3). Secretary General Moon plans to name South African jurist Navanethem Pillay as Louise Arbour's replacement as HC for HR.

http://www.peacekeeper.ca/news_mil.html
http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/operations/current_ops_e.asp
http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/newsroom/news_e.asp?cat=&y=&m=&page=1
http://www.idea.int/
http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/cu_mission/body.htm
http://www.carleton.ca/csds/pki/links.htm

Wednesday, June 18 2008

2008-06-18T11:32:00.002-04:00

Yesterday a UN envoy for Somalia began meetings with the country's international partners on how to support the Djibouti Agreement, reached last week and designed to bring peace to a state without a functioning government since 1991. ICG warns of possible escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Baghdad asserts sovereignty over occupying US armed forces in new talks with Washington about upcoming two-year 'status of forces agreement'. Further indications of Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan south. Simmering conflict on Georgia's side of the buffer zone, as detained Russian 'peacekeepers' are released. Armed conflict continues between Chad and Sudan largely under the radar. A few hurdles remain before Syria and Israel meet for the first time on July 13th in Paris.

Friday, May 23 08

2008-05-23T10:46:00.002-04:00

Heavy optimism bogs down recent Mid-East political discourse. Meanwhile, Israeli military kills 5 militants belonging allegedly to Islamic Jihad along Gaza security fence. President Mikhail Saakashvili appears set to retain power in Tbilisi. UN Secretary General’s Special Representative to Nepal Ian Martin reports to Security Council of 'very significant challenges' on the road to lasting peace and stability. Ban also has reportedly secured unfettered access for experienced aid workers to Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta.

UN arms embargo not getting in the way of civil war in Somalia. Yesterday's press release by Security Council giving stamp of approval to Arab League agreement reached at Doha between Lebanese government and 'anti-government militias', neglects to mention Hezbollah by name. Sadr City back under control of central government after 10,000 Iraqi troops fortify their presence. International Crisis Group (ICG)'s 2008 annual report claims 'a significant role in shaping the debate'.

Saturday, May 10 08

2008-05-10T12:38:00.002-04:00

Myanmar junta again seizes humanitarian shipments, as calls intensify among Western officials for military-backed aid delivery inside the borders of an independent state. Has anyone determined whether the junta is distributing aid? Not difficult to foresee why the regime insists emergency workers carry valid passports. US Army assessment outlines future of 'asymmetric threats' and 'irregular warfare'.

Hezbollah agrees to negotiate with Lebanese PM Fuad Siniora on standing down militia control of Beirut, return of government communications facilities. Lebanese government cannot cope with the militias. Serbia heads into elections Sunday, with nationalists and extremists leading a tense contest for this new democracy. Darfur rebels bring the fight toward Khartoum. Islamabad governing coalition gets selective during Washington military envoy appointment, as Pakistani government signs peace agreement with more militants in NW Frontier.

Friday, May 9 08

2008-05-09T13:32:00.003-04:00

Beirut declares war on itself once again (1,2,3). UN suspends relief flights into Myanmar after seizure by Junta. UN relief flights quickly resume. Meanwhile. 'humanitarian warriors' like French Kouchner spark debate about bypassing Junta by invoking new 'Responsibility to Protect' doctrine, after which, 'moderate humanitarian warriors' like Ramesh Thakur raise signals of alarm about the R2P doctrine becoming overstretched.

Civil war in Somalia hardly a domestic conflict, frustrated constantly by foreign wrangling. Three months after declaration, parts of Kosovo remain deeply divided, geopolitical tensions approach boiling point, and world military powers ponder which side to back. Iraq war debate presently dominated by cold blooded calculations.

Thursday, May 8 08

2008-05-08T14:25:00.002-04:00

Troubles reappear in Islamabad and across Pakistan. As Tbilisi warns once again of 'formidable adversary' Russia amassing for two-front war, US Congress begins to stonewall. Why is the classic 'frozen conflict' heating up this spring? One hardly needs to ask. EU global human rights policies are coming up for reevaluation. In Dharmsala, Dalai Lama's representatives and Chinese Government officials begin exchange of 'concrete proposals'. Military justice appears slippery in the case of US Marine Sergeant originally sentenced to 15 years for kidnapping and murdering Iraqi civilian. According to polling by the War and Peace Index, Israelis perceive war on the horizon.

Tuesday, May 6 08

2008-05-06T13:30:00.002-04:00

'Fighting well' no longer about winning, says Canadian Major Gen. Beare of CFB Kingston's Land Force Doctrine and Training System. Israel's 60th stimulates much reflection on mid-east conflict and relationships to geopolitics and Western power (1,2,3,4). China's so-called 'next generation nationalists' give some illustration of powerful feelings of national pride persisting in conditions of widespread human rights repression.

Here's how ELAM Tigers colonized Canada's electoral system to fund insurgency. The new immorality of the Iraqi occupation: fearing political setbacks, Washington must opt for 'diehard' victory against the insurgency, even as experts warn that diplomacy alone can enable reconstruction of Iraq's now-severely fractured society. In the American anti-Iraq discourse, the usual suspects are once again saying 'never again' about acts of military aggression. With US primaries absorbing American political life, Russia sends clearly ambiguous message about intention to invade Abkhazia.

Monday, May 5 08

2008-05-05T10:42:00.002-04:00

UNAMID deployment reports air attacks against civilians in North Darfur. Georgian Air Force uses footage to accuse Russia of shooting down drone. Does it represent "open aggression"? Is the Abkhaz conflict nearing boiling point? The LA Times claims; "it's tough to pay attention to wars that haven't yet broken out in places you can't spell". Meanwhile, Red Square will unapologetically witness Soviet era-style display of military hardware.

The rhetoric and politics of talking to the Taliban. American power begins to gradually shift to Afghanistan. Communist insurgents in The Philippines growing in size and strength. Iraqis no doubt conflicted over ambitious US plan to turn Baghdad green zone into 'zone of influence', with luxury hotels, shopping and condos. Selling invasion of Iran: Nir Rosen versus Michael O'Hanlon.

Saturday, May 3 08

2008-05-03T10:38:00.002-04:00

Canadian Government beside itself over whether to open direct Taliban talks. Afghan tribal chief arrested in U.S. reveals interconnections between smuggling, terrorism and warlordism. Recent internal audit notes "command and control, fear-inducing, top-down management style" that has long "served as the basis for day-to-day operations" in United Nations bureaucracy. For Russia, the U.S./E.U. stance on statehood for Kosovo overstepped Security Council authority. Meanwhile, the U.S. establishes diplomatic contacts with the leader of Nepal's Maoists. Lacing political will and public endorsement, war crimes trials increasingly unlikely in Serbia.

Friday, May 2 08

2008-05-01T22:59:00.002-04:00

Middle East Quartet begins last push for two state plan. Living conditions in Gaza City are beyond imagination. 'Publicity politics' mark the China-Sudan uproar, as theatrical protests and flag-waving demonstrators fail to accelerate UNAMID deployment. Do celebrities help? Turkish strikes drift deeper into Iraqi Kurdistan. Congolese rebel Nkunda will confront choice between troop loyalty and fulfilling warrants by the ICC.

Last week's Moscow maneuvering never needed to be explained: preventing NATO accession of Georgia. Are U.S. candidates ignoring the Russian elephant behind the door?Is a two-state partition of Iraq feasible (Part 2)? Basque radicals suspected in detonations near Bilbao. Robert Kagan on the return of ideology in the global political realm.

Thursday, May 1 08

2008-05-01T12:15:00.002-04:00

Georgia/Russia maneuvering looks ready to deteriorate, Tbilisi making moves on the international stage and Moscow becoming masters at peacekeeping politics in separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Meanwhile, Chechnya's Russian Mandarin Kadyrov continues to drift from Moscow's influence.

From Somalian and American officials, Thursday's air strike kills feared and notorious Somali al Qaeda official. Karzai attack hatched partly in Pakistan's FATA, as once-applauded governing coalition begins to splinter and rift between government and military opens further. Work of the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) is effectively shut down after Eritrean intransigence: evidence that peacekeeping is conditioned on stakeholders' political commitment, and a 'blow to blue helmets everywhere'.

Tuesday, April 29 08

2008-04-28T20:55:00.003-04:00

Intergenerational political movements that turn over into violence typically produce their own offspring. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon names Hezbollah's military presence as the challenge to Lebanon's Presidential standoff. Confrontational rhetoric against Iran ramped up by US military and administration. (1,2). The impulse to trade is clearing the way for Russia/Serbia-EU co-operation. Is a two-state partition of Iraq inevitable (Part 1)? Taliban presence said to be expanding geographically and sociologically into the heart of Afghanistan. Legitimacy and authority parting ways temporarily in Zimbabwe.

Monday, April 28 08

2008-04-28T12:35:00.002-04:00

Rwanda is rebuilding partly on memories of tragedy. BBC takes a look at Somalia's insurgents. Upsurge in "honour killings" raises questions about Iraq's new constitution. NATO's Afghanistan mission holds the cities but leaves rural areas largely untouched. Escalation in Sri Lanka shows Tamils highly motivated and tenacious. Vehicle filled with weapons, ammunition and Kosovo Albanians seized by Kosovo police before crossing Macedonian frontier.

Sunday, April 27 2008

2008-04-27T13:00:00.002-04:00

Moscow-supported Kadyrov is only a year in power, but today his grip on Chechnya is about to unravel. Hezbollah militias are recruiting heavily, setting sights once again on Lebanon's Israeli border. Following Russian escalation, the view that Georgia is an ally and friend of the United States is filtering through U.S. foreign policy circles: will accelerating NATO membership augment regional security?

Last gasps of Mugabe era in Zimbabwe are forcing us to consider the relative benefits and costs of the five strategies of forcing illegitimate dictators out of power. U.S. Marines re-deploying in Afghanistan signals parallels in military strategy as well as in the nature of evolving conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Saturday, April 26 08

2008-04-26T13:10:00.002-04:00

Signs of success in East Timor allow Australia to bring home 200 stabilization troops. Humanitarian crisis in Somalia indicates how civil strife often makes access to civilians in need impossible. Opposition party repression continues in Zimbabwe as election results are kept in limbo. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon sparks a new debate for a power sharing framework, contending that Iraq "continues to face formidable challenges to reaching a national consensus on how to share power and resources". Foreign Policy comments on the Iraq war's dire effects on overall U.S. military capacity. The UNHCR will probe deaths of four Iranians expelled by Turkey on Iraqi border.

Friday, April 25 2008

2008-04-24T19:22:00.003-04:00

Disputed Darfur civilian death count by U.N. immediately makes headlines (1,2). Georgia receives assurances of U.S. Government's commitment to territorial integrity and state sovereignty. Pakistan's military presence in NW tribal areas has lowered volatility and made terrorist attacks less frequent. Ethiopia denounces Qatar publicly for covertly supporting insurgents. Massive U.S. embassy in Baghdad becoming an unsettling symbol for Iraqis. Uganda's peace process is falling apart, as the LRA re-groups for battle. The Canadian military underestimated the Afghan quagmire, where it will indefinitely remain.

Thursday, April 24 2008

2008-04-24T11:20:00.002-04:00

In Sudan, efforts to accelerate deployment of co-ordinated U.N./A.U. forces as mandated in Security Council Resolution 1590 (March 05) continue, the Darfur crisis only worsens, with UNMIS too weak to provide safety to aid workers. Zimbabwe's crisis exemplifies the 21st century struggle for political freedom. U.N. human rights expert Ghanim Alnajjar condemns killings of civilian religious leaders in Somalia, calling for expeditious and impartial investigations.

Kosovo's February 17th unilateral declaration and official recognition generated considerable anger inside Serbia. With Serbian parliamentary and local elections set for May 11, questions surface: Will Western-friendly democrats prevail or unfriendly socialists? Will NGOs and Westerns governments have leverage? Will the new leadership respond to possible offers of rapprochement by Washington/Brussells? Meanwhile, with the new precedent in firmly hand, Russia plows forward by recognizing Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, against protest and bellicose announcements.

Tuesday, December 11 07

2007-12-11T13:35:00.000-05:00

NATO stays busy in Afghanistan, as Kosovo talks end and E.U. appears dumbfounded. Cuba is set to sign into civil and political rights. Darfur engagement liable to distractions. Lester Pearson's international contribution is being commemorated and better understood.

Friday, December 7 07 (1)

2007-12-07T11:10:00.001-05:00

U.N.'s Monday deadline for resolving Kosovo's political status approaches, as the international community's 'unfinished business' there gives rise to fears of a new Balkan war. If NATO's 26 don't act after today's last minute talks, their wrangling and worrying over Moscow's growing influence (1, 2) will lead unnecessarily to threatening rhetoric and securitization. One hopes the ICG's "Kosovo Blueprint" finds its way to Brussels. The outcry has faded, and the junta's grip remains firm; have Myanmar's Generals weathered the storm?

Friday, December 7 07 (2)

2007-12-07T10:18:00.000-05:00

After a year or more of Darfur in the epicentre of the global political spotlight, the interests of vulnerable and impoverished civilians, caught between the government and warring factions, threaten to submerge. International justice unfolds at glacial speed, as the International Criminal Court in Tanzania renders former Rwandan provincial Governor Karera guilty of genocide and crimes against humanity. Different conflicts reveal an identical pattern, as Pakistan's Musharraf and Chechnya's Kadyrov flirt with radicals to retain domestic standing.

Monday, December 3 07

2007-12-03T11:15:00.000-05:00

Lebanon's political deadlock makes General Suleiman the likely choice as a new consensus head of state. Star power pushed Darfur into the headlines, yet civil wars of equal brutality in Sri Lanka and Ethiopia's Ogaden continue to ravage civilians under the radar. The politics of humanitarian intervention plays right into Sudanese government's hands. Iranian President Ahmadinejad appeals to Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) for "peace and security without foreign intervention". Strong criticism and suggestions of future instability plague Russian parliamentary vote. Is there no difference between falling short of OSCE standards and outright election-rigging? In Canada, Privy Council purse strings are tightening as Afghan mission costs go through the roof.

Monday, November 26 07

2007-11-26T12:22:00.000-05:00

Is there consensus or simply headlines in Annapolis? The politics of humanitarianism in Africa ignore Somalian civilians in harms way (1,2). A new International Crisis Group (ICG) report suggests that 2006's Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) is quickly falling apart, as Darfur rebels predictably challenge the neutrality of Chinese military contribution. With recent heavy-handedness, is Russian President Putin suppressing the peoples' will (1,2,3)? Last week's labor victory will usher change in Australian Iraq policy.

Sunday, November 25 07

2007-11-25T15:32:00.000-05:00

Return of Sharif to Lahore is followed by Musharraf vow to rule Pakistan as a civilian(1,2) Withdrawal of U.S. troops set to begin as Iraq 'surge' is declared a virtual success. Annapolis negotiations showing how extremism can't be ignored after success at the polls. For many this is little more than "posing for peace". U.S. military now recognizes the link between peace enforcement, nation-building and "local knowledge". Dayton architect Holbrooke remains pessimistic about averting war following Kosovo's upcoming UDI from Serbia. Security Council rubberstamps ostensibly permanent E.U. peace operation (EUFOR) in Bosnia. New riot police crackdowns and political arrests raise fears among pro-democracy activists--in St. Petersburg.

Thursday, November 8 07

2007-11-08T12:41:00.000-05:00

Darfur negotiations are failing to overcome the immediate obstacles. Pakistan crisis deepens with election delay. Previously a democratic saviour Georgian President Saakashvili cracks down hard before moving ahead general election date. Could this be a beginning of dialogue in Myanmar? A solution in Transdniester/Moldova may soon unfold. U.N. mission in Timor-Leste optimistic after human rights report. Secretary General Moon remains engaged on Ethiopia/Eritrea border dispute calling attention to troop buildup and military exercises.

Wednesday, November 7 07

2007-11-07T13:47:00.001-05:00

Addis Ababa has closed down relief efforts in Ethiopia's insurgent Ogaden region weeks ago, so the U.N. will establish a local humanitarian presence. Secretary General Moon's philosophy begins to come into view: i) with a challenge to Burmese military leaders for intransigence and the sidestepping of U.N. official visits; ii) then with announcement to re-vamp U.N. Department of Political Affairs (DPA) for rapid and proactive "crisis diplomacy"; iii) then finally with commitment to regional organizations as a key to resolving conflict in the long term. Command responsibility is once again the legal issue as former Serbian nationalist leader Vojislav Seselj faces life in prison at Hague criminal trial. Demise of Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) deputy Otti is the likely outcome of International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant and strong local support for Ugandan justice. Stability in West Africa requires "regional collaboration". U.N. Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) continues to monitor last year's agreement, as former Maoist rebels and central regime wait for violence to re-ignite. Bhutto issues her ultimatum (1,2).

Monday, November 5 07

2007-11-05T12:26:00.000-05:00

Pakistani President Musharraf's gambles to re-shape his state in advance of January election. Here's the BBC's roster of major factions and the text of Musharraf's "emergency proclamation". Kosovo problem has forced U.S./Rus/E.U. quartet to push for new sovereignty framework(s). Will international recognition inevitably turn over into greater separatist demands? Surging public discontent re-appears in Georgia, threatening to unseat President Saakashvili. Afghanistan's north is awash with weaponry and informal factional networks.

Friday, November 2 07

2007-11-02T11:00:00.000-04:00

With the spotlight on Islamabad's more radical insurgents, suppression of Baluchistan's war of national liberation might be the central government's Achilles heel. The International Crisis Group(ICG)'s new CrisisWatch (No.51) warns of deepening militarization in both Pakistan and Ethiopia/Eritrea. Security Council unanimously approves six-month extensions for missions in The Sudan (UNMIS) and Western Sahara (MINURSO). The first should modestly sharpen the mandate of largest yet and first hybrid peace operation, while reinforcing to Khartoum and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) the “importance of full and expeditious implementation of all elements of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.” (CPA, 2005). The other should advance negotiations between Morocco and the Frente Polisario about the U.N.-administered territory's future status. The former insurgent and Iraqi Kurd leader Barzani is a state-less nationalist with sufficient clout to tone down U.S.-Turkey-PKK escalation.

Thursday, November 1 07

2007-11-01T12:26:00.000-04:00

Somalia is a nation-state with no central government, and in Mogadishu violence never goes away. Afghanistan nears a turning-point, as British ISAF troops are accused of active de-securitization. Humanitarian crisis in Iraq stems directly from a predictable post-totalitarian political vaccuum, not ancient ethno-religious hatred. Why is Europe's role alleviating U.S.-Iran nuclear tensions in disarray? Today, Bosnia-Hersegovina Prime Minister Spiric, the first domestic leader with authority since the end of the 92-95 war, resigned in protest over EU's efforts to streamline post-Dayton governance. Accession criteria comes into focus as Serbia enlists U.S./British help locating fugitive Mladic's Belgrade hideaway. Some Brits are debating whether Saudi's absolute monarch Abdullah is part of the problem, an enlightened reformer, or something else. Thirteen years after war, Azeri refugees from Karabakh question plans to relocate IDP camps currently near Baku.

Wednesday, October 31 07

2007-10-31T12:28:00.000-04:00

A second wave of protests by Buddhist monks in Myanmar will be a true test of regime's legitimacy. Without purpose unclear and strategic vision in limbo, "Afghanistan is now NATO's center of gravity and Achilles' heel". After skirmishes between Georgian border guards and Russian "Peacekeepers" along the Georgia-Russia frontier, facts remain unclear and violence is threatens to boil over. Disunity among Darfur rebel factions complicates peace talks taking place Libya.

Saturday, October 27 07

2007-10-27T11:15:00.000-04:00

Conflict scenarios proliferating along the Iraq/Turkey frontier. New military operations demonstrate Pakistan's silent purge strategy against religious radicals. The International Criminal Court (ICC) struggles to walk the line indicting Uganda's war criminals. Turkmenistan's first independence day celebration is an occasion to remember cult-ish former strongman and contemplate who will navigate through the process of reform. Hague Tribunal Chief Prosecutor Del Ponte asks EU ministers to pressure Serbia for information leading to the capture of Mladic and Karadzic.

Monday, August 13 07

2007-08-13T12:16:00.000-04:00

Factions in Somalia's civil war guilty of "knowingly and recklessly" targeting noncombatants. U.N. peace operation in Sudan threatens to unravel. (1,2). Philippine offensive against southern militants begins. The Art of War in Darfur. Debate continues inside the beltway on the source of legitimacy of humanitarian military intervention. Warnings of genocidal violence in Baghdad.

Monday, August 6 07

2007-08-06T22:43:00.000-04:00

Darfur rebel factions except one now endorse principles of future "power-sharing, wealth-sharing, security arrangements, land and humanitarian issues" (1,2,3), with negotiations scheduled shortly. Deadlock is broken in East Timor, as Gusmao is named P.M., and sporadic violence erupts in Dili. With recognition virtually guaranteed, Serbia announces support for Kosovo's partial sovereignty. Priority of the U.S. military should be to reduce the small arms available in Iraq (1,2). Ivo Daalder and Robert Kagen anchor their liberal interventionism in the U.N. Security Council and/or a broad, bipartisan consensus among the U.S.A.'s democratic partners.

Sunday, August 5 07

2007-08-05T22:28:00.000-04:00

This month's Crisis Watch (No. 48) puts the spotlight on peace operation in The Sudan and elections in DR. Congo. U.N. Security Council Resolution 1789 (here's a primer) has already given stakeholders like U.N. Sec. Gen. Ban Ki-moon authority to engage all main factions except the most powerful. The main concern so far is that the force is too weak (1,2), or could fade against Khartoum's opposition. According to Enrique Barón Crespo of the European Parliament, the European Union has a duty to fight for "globalized democracy". Colombo government now prepared to enter talks with Sri Lanka's Tamil rebels.

Thursday, August 2 07

2007-08-02T14:51:00.000-04:00

"Largest ever" peacekeeping operation is tasked under the UN Charter's Chapter 7, but nevertheless involves a new, hybridized military intervention. Here is it's operational framework (1), initial announcement by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (2), plus an expanding U.N. news source (3). Allan Gregg ruminates about the links between national identity and peacekeeping in Canada. Just as UNHCR Arbour praises Rwanda's abolition of capital punishment, an expatriate accused of participating in 1994 genocide requests Canadian war crimes prosecutions, citing the potential for human rights abuses in Rwanda. U.N. Sec. Gen. Ban Ki-moon endorses troika cooperation to settle Kosovo tensions.

Tuesday, July 31 07

2007-07-31T19:58:00.000-04:00

U.N. Security Council votes to send peacekeepers into The Sudan: but troops will be deployed next year, political momentum is uncertain, and the operation will strictly continue the hybrid model. John Gray strikes a chord announcing the death of "liberal interventionism". U.S. command ignores many lessons with a return to high-altitude strategy in Iraq. Decades-old crimes against humanity by Khmer Rouge prosecuted by U.N. in Cambodia.

Monday, July 30 07

2007-07-31T00:41:00.000-04:00

The bottom line "after the Americans leave": local military powers will carve up what's left of the former Iraqi state. The offer by Pakistan's ex-PM Bhutto to "re-balance power" sends the central government toward its tipping point, but signals are increasing that shortsighted strategy of stability by repression will continue. In Afghanistan, NATO increases efforts to protect civilians by contemplating a reduction in weapon loads. The U.N. Security Council shows commitment, extends UNMEE operation Ethiopia/Eritrea. Part of the "failed state phenomena": prosecutions of former regime officials, like recent D.R. Congo trials, prolong the conflict but become the cornerstone of rebuilding.

Friday, July 27 07

2007-07-27T23:09:00.001-04:00

Yesterday's report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) on Sudan recommends all-around support for the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)--without multilateral military intervention. The issuing of ICC warrants will bring political change in Khartoum. Foreign Policy's 2007 "Failed States Index" ranks Sudan the worst among 59 other troubled states on 12 indicators of instability. Patience is wearing thin in Kosovo. Here's an excerpt of Chomsky's new book Interventions on the dynamics of Washington-Tehran antagonism. Belarusian regime sets the standard for garden-variety political repression.

Thursday, July 26 07

2007-07-26T23:15:00.001-04:00

The players know it's crucial to keep Darfur rebel groups in one tent (1,2). British politicians return from Burma reporting human rights abuses "on an unimaginable scale". A characteristic form of 21st century civil war: Eritrea will be challenged this week by the U.N. for shipping arms, and fighting "by proxy", alongside neighboring Somalia's insurgency. Does Georgia's new policy in Iraq say anything about its own legitimacy? The Pentagon is no longer certain about withdrawing 114,000 U.S. troops from Western Europe. It's about time Inuit claims enter the debate about Canadian Arctic sovereignty. Liberty is ill in Putin's Russia, as civil disobedients are put on notice. Hard-liners wait for revolutionary moment in Pakistan. The Fall 07 Dissent contains an informative interview with Seyla Benhabib about Turkey's July 22 election.

Friday, July 20 07

2007-07-20T23:51:00.000-04:00

Situation unchanged in Darfur, as refugees look for safety across the border and militias operate freely. Canadian policy shows how Western involvement in the crisis is restricted to a humanitarian role. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon gently recommends strict adherence to the 2002 judgment of the Eritrea-Eritrea Boundary Commission. Extrajudicial murders becoming routine for both sides of Sri Lankan civil war. It still appears Kosovars will celebrate independence day alone. Armenia asks why its regional neighbors are readying for war. Nepal's peace process remains on track, but success depends on political integration of the Tarai region's Madhesis. The Canadian Government's analysis of its Afghanistan mission.

Monday, November 27 06

2006-11-27T14:10:00.000-05:00

U.N. mission in D.R. Congo (MONUC) responds to attack by rebel troops (1,2). Small Canadian contingent contributes to 'African peacekeeping school' in Mali. Jordan's King Abdullah warns of widening military conflict and the spread of civil war in middle east. U.N. Secretary General Annan gives Sudanese government two days to consider U.N.-A.U. hybrid peacekeeping operation. Diplomatic sparring turns to military maneuvering as Somalia increases troops on Ethiopian border. Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) holds summit in Minsk to discuss unity, already resulting in cooperation agreements between Kyrgyzstan and Belarus. Despite Russian powerful influence, Georgia's primary focus remains joining the E.U. and NATO.

Saturday, November 25 06 (2)

2006-11-26T00:53:00.000-05:00

Belarusian opposition leader Milinkevich is released by police after apparently flimsy arrest. Uzbekistan reacts against U.S. political interventions as diplomatic row continues. Bahrain is determining its future by finding a balance of internal factions. Former Chilean President Pinochet accepts 'political responsibility' for human rights abuses. Somalia security situation illustrates deadly combination of state failure and uninformed foreign interference. Russia's military presence inside Georgia diminishing on schedule. This discussion of American all-volunteer military dynamics paints a picture of success.

Saturday, November 25 06 (1)

2006-11-25T17:34:00.001-05:00

Lebanon inches from collapse if government talks go ahead over international tribunal for Hariri assassination (1,2). Riga summit considers NATO's two divergent future configurations. Kyrgyzstan's constitutional reforms will be put to the test by politicians. Repressive Mugabe regime cannot be sustained if local groups continue to align around Zimbabwe's mounting military opposition. Darfur conflict redefining 'regional destabilization': displaced refugees unwilling to return home, rebel military activities are threatening Chadian capital N'djamena, and international peace operations remain deadlocked in diplomacy.

Friday, November 24 06

2006-11-24T14:33:00.000-05:00

Two different revolutions in Georgia (2004) and Ukraine (2005). Nobody is qualified than the International Crisis Group's (ICG) President Evans to reflect on ethical commitments and implementation obstacles of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) framework ('From an Idea to an International Norm'). ICG's Nick Grono speaks on early warning and qualitative determinants predicting civil war. Assassination in the middle east is pathological, and Lebanon's popular 'Cedar Revolution' of 2005 now seems like ancient history. Iraq 'is broke beyond repair', calls for immediate troop withdrawals are unsuprising. U.S. military anticipates major troop withdrawals by accelerating Iraq's own security forces training. Somalia and Ethiopia are fully militarized. In Afghanistan, Taliban resurgence thrives on political incompetence everywhere in new regime. Long-time skeptic China increasingly a leader deploying U.N. peacekeeping troops.

Wednesday, November 22 06

2006-11-22T14:22:00.000-05:00

Lebanon's pro-democracy, anti-Syria movement 'is in quite a bit of trouble', and Prime Minister Siniora's government is quickly approaching collapse (1,2). E.U. sharpens the edge of Belarus neighborhood policy: aid and trade for immediate human rights and democratic reforms. Nepal's Prime Minister Koirala and rebel leader Prachanda reinforce legitimacy of peace accord by issuing joint declaration of peace. Today Ukraine contemplates the past and future with 2004 Orange Revolution celebrations on national 'Freedom Day'. Russia adopts an increasingly aggressive posture, continues to ruthlessly occupy Chechnya and blatantly violates international human rights, but weaker rivals Georgia and Moldova often stand alone demanding reforms in WTO entry negotiations.

Tuesday, November 21 06

2006-11-21T17:47:00.000-05:00

Today the Sri Lankan government began bombing of rebel strongholds. Afghanistan Defense Minister Wardak thinks domestic troops will be ready by 2008. U.N. peacekeepers in D.R. Congo disperse riot in Kinshasa at Supreme Court. Will the Nepalese punish their King for political repression? U.N. Security Council extends E.U. Stabilization Force (EUFOR) for one year in Bosnia-Herzegovina. E.U. decision-makers seek to expand E.U. Neighborhood Policy as far as Belarus. Iraq and Syria open channels of diplomacy. Is Canada in Afghanistan to export peace, order and good government? In the midst of a worsening situation in Darfur, the struggle for peace is being pushed forward by women. This Washington Post article asks why internationalists are selective calling for intervention in Darfur alone.

Monday, November 20 06

2006-11-20T17:23:00.000-05:00

Washington is caught in a 'fake options debate': can't increase, can't stay, can't go home. The odds are not good for constitutional democracy in Iraq. 'Rumsfeld doctrine' of 20th century warfare taking shape on schedule. Nepal's constitution forbids prosecution of King Gyanendra for harsh repression during 15-month direct rule. Ambiguity embedded in last week's high-profile U.N.-Sudan agreement is spawning debates about complex peace operations and chains of command. Soon-to-be-replaced British Prime Minister Blair pledges his country's commitment to rebuilding Afghanistan however long that takes. U.N. High Commissioner for Human rights Arbour warns of 'massive' human rights abuse Arbour warns of 'massive human rights violations of Gaza noncombatants (1,2). New reports about Serbian President Milosovic's Kosovo activities illustrate how security services and paramilitaries can be centrally coordinated in breakaway regions. Tongo peacekeeping expedition a reminder that south pacific security is becoming expensive for New Zealand and Australia. China's Deputy Procurator General Wang speaks openly of systematic policy of torture. Unresolved factional conflict continues to re-surface in the Ukraine. Canadian Prime Minister Harper firm but mindful rejecting U.S. North Korea request.

Saturday, November 18 06 (2)

2006-11-18T12:29:00.000-05:00

Sri Lanka President Rajapakse asks Tamil rebel leadership to stop violence. The moral standing of allied terror bombing in WWII still sparks debate. Hereditary rule is challenged by rioters in Tonga's capital Nuku'alofa, as 150 Australia/New Zealand peacekeepers dispatched without delay. NATO political talks achieve two-stage consensus about Afghanistan crossroads: everyone agrees additional troops urgently needed, however still nobody willing to contribute. NATO faces endgame challenges in Kosovo, where the war to save Albanians now leaves them in state of enforced limbo. U.N. Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) and U.S.-based not-for-profit Afropop Worldwide will combine to enhance local communications in African U.N. peace operations.

Saturday, November 18 06 (1)

2006-11-18T12:28:00.000-05:00

One day after U.N. and Sudan negotiators establish 'agreement' over new peacekeeping troops (1,2,3,4), deal is apparently built on notion of 'assistance' to presently-beleaguered A.U. operation. Somalia's destabilization is more than domestic affair. A startling call for overthrow of President Ravalomanana by General Fidy of Madagascar. U.S. Secretary of State Rice draws attention to excessive military expenditures--by China. U.S. military brass lays out 4-6 month timeline before 'total chaos in Iraq'. In this Washington Times op-ed, President Putin lays out Russia's ambitions for Eurasian power. Afghanistan President Karzai reminds international community that Afghan instability will spill over regionally.

Thursday, November 16 06

2006-11-16T00:34:00.000-05:00

Increasingly clear that 5-year-old Afghanistan peace operation has not improved the well-being or rights-protections of Afghan society. A quiet but strong consensus that we deserve better communications about security status and trajectory of Afghanistan peace operation, which is poised to enter new phase with old mujahideen gradually reappearing. Kabila triumphs in D.R. Congo Presidential run-off, as opponent Bemba promises legal action. Social services and infrastructure are so dilapidated in D.R. Congo that observers anticipate possible consensus behind Kabila-driven rebuilding effort. Thanks to the Genocide Intervention Network, web surfers can view each U.S. Representative's 'score' working to stop human rights abuses in Darfur and obtain information and advice to contact representatives individually by telephone. Somehow worldwide enthusiasm after U.S. mid-terms produced rumor-like suggestion that Iraq pullout might parlay into beneficial new mideast alignment (1,2). Carrying out military action in the collective name of Lebanese people was Hezbollah's earliest war crime, but fragile state left behind is the direct consequence.

Wednesday, November 15 06

2006-11-15T11:45:00.000-05:00

D.R. Congo sits on the edge of factional violence days before results of presidential re-vote are announced. 'Independent commission' will mediate the Ethiopia-Eritria border dispute beginning with November 20 multiparty discussions in The Hague. Diplomatic wrangling continues to surround The Sudan, as Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Guehenno turns up pressure on Khartoum and U.N. Secretary General Annan pushes his 'hybrid' peacekeeping model. Robert Fisk predicts that the urge to direct responsibility for civil war back toward Iraqis will sway U.S. political writers, and Jerry West breaks the news that war is for-profit business. E.U. foreign policy chief Solana announces signing of special new 'European Neighborhood Policy' by South Caucasus countries Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Here's a useful 'backgrounder' explaining the insurgency in Iraq.

Tuesday, November 14 06 (2)

2006-11-14T16:03:00.000-05:00

Even against international condemnation Pakistan's powerful religious lobby frequently gets its way. Australian Maj.-Gen. Gordon named as Chief of Staff for Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) in Jerusalem, which is the U.N.'s oldest peacekeeping operation. Kosovo U.N. envoy urges against 'unilateral actions' as province's status remains in limbo. Two more U.N. peacekeeping troops shot to death in Haiti. Does Africa need an increase in U.S. military presence? The definition of 'quagmire': the U.S. is now 'hostage' to Iraq, with a disastrous history of mismanagement and a divided military policy-making apparatus. As conflict worsens by the day, is massacre of civilians by local factions avoidable?

Tuesday, November 14 06 (1)

2006-11-14T15:59:00.000-05:00

U.N. Secretary General Annan calls for meeting in Ethiopia of U.S., E.U., China and Russia. D.R. Congo anticipates November 19 presidential run-off as candidates agree to refrain from interference in operations of 'apolitical' national security forces. Test case of international law of armed conflict begins tomorrow as European Court of Human Rights considers whether French K-For peacekeeping troops are subject to the European Convention on Human Rights while operating in the field. Afghan security officials report that suicide bombers and roadside detonators all emerge from Pakistan. U.N. tribunal for suspects in assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri will be a regional battleground.

Saturday, November 11, 06

2006-11-11T14:18:00.000-05:00

Somalia government rejects parliamentary speaker Adan's back channel attempts avert war by kickstarting Arab League-brokered talks with Islamist rebels. The international community postpones inevitable decision about Kosovo recognition in order to drain support for Serbia's nationalist parties going into January 21 election. Human rights protesters in Maldives call off public protest in Male, as government hints at violent crackdown. Are U.S. Democrats really adopting 'realism'? Doug Saunders begins the consequentialist reckoning of Iraq War II. More evidence over the last month that Pakistan's President Gen. Musharraf is either shrewd or confused: one tribal group in eastern borderlands is granted extensive political independence, and another is bombed into an unstable situation of anti-government extremism and hostility. Canada's JTF2 is a priority for new armed forces growth. In Canada, who will pay the price for expensive Afghanistan peace operation?

Friday, November 10 06 (2)

2006-11-10T21:51:00.000-05:00

Warm democratic wishes from the Russian government to the friendly people of Nepal. UNIFIL pushes forward as Lebanese army extends control of southern Lebanon and Israeli military moves toward border. Under-Secretary-General Guehenno reported today that U.N. Peacekeeping Operations posted 81,000 military + police, and 15,000 civilians invovled in 18 missions, under a budget expanding to $7 billion. In this RFE article, South Caucasus expert Laurence Broers explains why dynamically shifting military conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniester don't deserve their common nickname - 'frozen conflicts' of the Caucasus. Remains of 100 new victims of 1995 Srebernica massacre by Bosnian Serb forces are located in eastern Bosnia.

Friday, November 10 06 (1)

2006-11-10T20:25:00.000-05:00

A question is looming over the former Yugoslavia: will the international community and UNMIK bring about international recognition of Kosovo against Serbia's constitution? Kosovo Prime Minister Ceku might be prepared to declare independence with or without an agreement. South Ossetia votes for political independence this weekend in referendum #2, but the outcome will be similar to #1: landslide for separation; virtually zero acknowledgement from the international community. Chances for U.S. Iraq operation overhaul increase dramatically after election, as military leaders prepare to lay out 'strategy changes' for Iraq, and anti-war attitudes persist. AU adds six battalions and contingent of police officers to Dafur peacekeeping deployment.

Thursday, November 9 06

2006-11-10T00:17:00.000-05:00

Kyrgyzstan's unfolding political breakdown exposes a year's worth of tension between the government of President Bakiev and 'For Reforms!' parliamentary opposition group. Two recent Institute of War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) briefs say that a last-minute constitutional deal could avert more Bishkek streetfighting (1,2). Post-referendum Serbia asserts political identity by denying Kosovo independence aspirations. Atmosphere of 'useful political limbo' resting over Washington may benefit Iraq war planners. Child soldier cases a priority for The Hague's war crimes court (International Criminal Court (ICC)). Maj-Gen. Tommy Burns deserves some credit for 'inventing' peacekeeping back in 1955.

Wednesday, November 8 06

2006-11-08T14:30:00.000-05:00

Negotiations between Nepalese government and Maoist insurgents finally yield agreement to put guerrilla arms under U.N. control, as U.N. Secretary General Annan urges both sides to move forward with additional peace talks. UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) illustrates how transition from military to domestic civilian security is decisive in peace operations. Standoff in Ivory Coast, as Ivorian Prime Minister Banny commits to fully support U.N. Resolution 1721 and President Gbagbo threatens to resist. Afghanistan President Karzai practices 'forgive and forget' reconciliation as alliances with former enemies are struck. Is full-scale civil war inevitable in the West Bank and Gaza strip? Celebrating the half-century anniversary of peacekeeping, Annan talks with confidence about peacekeeping's role in the international community. In this Carnegie Council publication, Lilia Shevtsova lays out a framework for internally-driven Russian liberalization.

Tuesday, November 7 06

2006-11-07T12:21:00.000-05:00

Forging a stable relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is more difficult than ever in the midst of Pakistan's clandestine 'proxy wars'. Kyrgystan's government opts for force to suppress uprising in Bishkek. Historic competition for political influence now taking place in Central Asia between U.S. and Russian interests. Energy wealth tightens Azerbaijan's ties to EU. Darfur crisis threatens to cross frontier with Chad.

Monday, November 6 06 (3)

2006-11-06T17:19:00.001-05:00

Those directly involved in peace operations in Afghanistan and Lebanon are calling for real changes to how Western policy-makers discuss and train for security, policing and nation-building (1,2,3). Not all international NGOs have fled Darfur. Insurgents in Iraq's south are closer than widely understood to declaration of a separate new Islamic state, but U.S. pre-election opinion suggests likely troop reductions. Russia announces the value of 'energy security' for South Ossetians, as its new Dzaurikau-Tskhinvali gas pipeline speaks louder than any peacekeeper could. Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) leader Kony asks for U.N. meeting, likely to suggest exchanging ICC amnesty for peace.

Monday, November 6 06 (2)

2006-11-06T17:19:00.000-05:00

Tensions simmering in Kyrgyzstan, where public opinion is beginning to swing against President Bakiev's Constitutional proposals, Bishkek protests are ongoing, accusations continue to fly, and protesters face a crossroads. Now in control of Mogadishu, Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) is converted to nonintervention and 'maximum restraint'. This Toronto Star article suggests that the approach to peacekeeping long-accepted by Canadian decision-makers is reducable to a 'luxury item' and 'charitable endeavor focused on raising our profile' that budget-cutters find an easy target. Taiwan President Chen demonstrates how a democratic society can often withstand powerful challenges to its institutional legitimacy.

Monday, November 6 06 (1)

2006-11-06T15:58:00.000-05:00

Coalition locks down Baghdad after Hussein war crimes verdict, but gradually learns lessons about the challenges of policing a hostile population in the long term. Verdict is interpreted as a nation-building milestone, but will go down as 'deeply flawed', and like everything else today in Iraq opinions on it divide strictly on sectarian lines. Here are some projections detailing the economics of military invasion and occupation. As Tajikistan's two-term President Rakhmonov has recently shown, in a fragile democracy the incumbent takes immense advantages to the polls. Lukashenka and Ahmadinead form an unsuprising coalition. Political corruption correlates directly with political instability.

Thursday, November 2 06

2006-11-03T00:00:00.000-05:00

Much confusion about Darfur conflict stems from failure to appreciate the complexity and number of different belligerent factions. Why is Ethiopia involved in the war to control Somalia? Thailand's army-backed regime is unveiling plans for dealings with southern insurgents. Iraq President Talabani throws out three years as his preferred timeline for the earliest U.S. troop withdrawal. November 2006 elections might be masking American society's nearly universal commitment to militarism. NATO leadership in Afghanistan supports foreign investment in Kandahar, but widespread crime and corruption in local governments stand in the way.

Wednesday, November 1 06

2006-11-01T19:55:00.000-05:00

Thaw in Russia-Georgia standoff after timely Moscow talks and U.N. investigation of Abkhaz cross-border rocket attacks. U.S. Military leadership comes clean about the degree of political instability now plaguing Iraq. Did Pearson 'invent' peacekeeping? The International Crisis Group (ICG)'s CrisisWatch No. 39 (November 1, 2006) shows how actual and potential military conflict situations are typically regional. As diplomatic attempts to prevent escalation between Somalia's government and Islamist rebels fail, its appears certain that both sides aim to end the conflict by military force. U.N. Security Council extends Western Sahara peace operation (MINURSO) until April 30 07, in order to build on 15 years of success implementing self-determination referendum and maintaining safety zone between two military sides.

Tuesday, October 31 06

2006-10-31T15:13:00.000-05:00

Failure of government talks with opposition group 'For Reform' likely to bring unrest in Kyrghyzstan (1,2). Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace condemned by U.N. Latin America/Caribbean seat in U.N. Security Council still undecided. Taliban elusiveness creates difficulties on every level of Afghanistan peace operation. Civilian-military conflict in Fiji a product of six-year-old coup.

Monday, October 30 06 (2)

2006-10-29T15:59:00.000-05:00

Security is the fundamental challenge facing the U.N. peace operation in Haiti (MINUSTAH). Low turnout demonstrates public uncertainty in Serbian constitutional referendum, but the referendum succeeds. The winter will be decisive in the Afghan intervention as Taliban forces dig in for the battle of Kabul. NATO confirms noncombatant deaths from military strikes. Sandinista leader Ortega never disappeared from Nicaraguan politics, but has returned as a prime mover in the initial round of Nicaragua's presidential elections. U.N. Secretary-General Annan shifts the terms of Darfur debate from human rights to regional instability.

Monday, October 30 06 (1)

2006-10-29T15:24:00.000-05:00

Pakistan's attack on suspected militants in semiautonomous tribal district of Bajur spurs dissent at high levels of government. Philippines recruits for 'force multiplying' local civilian militias to fight against terrorist and communist insurrection. In Iraq, the trial and likely execution of former Iraqi President Hussein raise troubling human rights questions, as occupying coalition forces continue to disregard 'women's human rights'. The most vulnerable in U.N. Darfur refugee camps still receive the least actual protection. Four opposition candidates for Tajikistan's November 6 presidential vote overcome electoral disadvantages by campaigning together.

Saturday, October 28 06

2006-10-28T13:28:00.000-04:00

This story gives a picture of the security situation inside the failed state of Iraq. Should the coalition give up attempts to re-build a unified state? The E.U. remains active as Justice Commissioner Frattini looks into police actions during Hungary's recent street battles. Uncertainty captures Bangladesh as health concerns prevent former Supreme Court Justice Hasan from assuming expected 'caretaker' role in advance of January's elections. In Saturday's Globe and Mail, Doug Saunders suggests that Afghanistan failures stem from the military's overarching commitment to traditional aims of war and it's failure to appreciate the complexities of nation-building. A 21st-century principle of just war: the good guys are the ones who recognize that civilian lives are not expendable.

Friday, October 27 06 (2)

2006-10-27T19:35:00.000-04:00

Georgian Prime Minister Noghaideli criticized Russia's clampdown today at the OSCE. Major autonomy deal between Pakistani Government and tribal leaders of Waziristan is more significant than Washington realizes. With no established pattern of powersharing, U.S.-imposed Iraqi federalism can't survive. After decades teetering on collapse, D.R. Congo's Presidential campaign is reinforcing the boundaries of major ethnic groups. The international community needs to balance peace and justice before the window of opportunity closes for a long-term peace deal in Uganda. Unsuccessful peace operations teach valuable lessons.

Friday, October 27 06 (1)

2006-10-27T18:36:00.000-04:00

In Somalia, political legitimacy has shifted and foreign intervention could spark expanded regional war. Sudanese government now gives a rationale for Pronk expulsion: the U.N. envoy took sides last week when he stated that rebels were gaining control of the south. The E.U. loosens post-Andijon sanctions in order to maintain 'lines of communication' with Uzbekistan. A committee of the U.N. General Assembly began work today on a new voluntary global treaty to regulate the arms trade, geared especially towards limiting proliferation of military hardware in failed or unstable states (1,2). In countries emerging from military conflict, women and children are disproportionately exposed to violence: Assistant Secretary-General Carolyn McAskie is tasked to represent their interests through new U.N. Peacebuilding Commission.

Thursday, October 26 06

2006-10-26T14:32:00.000-04:00

Thai coup leader General Sondhi fails to produce evidence of corruption in ousted Tahksin government. South Korea voices concerns about the unanticipated casualties of major economic sanctions against the north. Two members of Burma's parliament lay out some of their 'overwhelming evidence' that the Burmese people want to end their dictatorship. Influx of recruits will boost Canadian military's troops ready for action, but recent patchwork policies will dilute the forces' pool of talented personnel (1,2). In Afghanistan, NATO finds battlefield success against insurgents, but fails to protect innocent noncombatants. Timothy Garton Ash comments on the costs of the Iraq invasion in terms of soldiers' lives.

Wednesday, October 25 06

2006-10-25T16:28:00.000-04:00

In Nigeria, federalism is a license for refusing to share resource wealth. Ethiopia is 'technically at war', but not a 'shooting war'. Kyrgyz President Bakiev stands by his government against protests from legislature. Violence continues to thwart peacebuilding efforts in East Timor. Putin plans for retirement and confirms that Russia's ambition was never to annex Georgia. Talks have stalled, putting Nepal again on the edge of widespread violence.

Tuesday, October 24 06

2006-10-24T21:03:00.000-04:00

The tide is about to turn in Iraq, with overwhelming U.S. public condemnation of the invasion, retreat-like deal-making, and louder pleas from Iraqi government not to panic, run. The Canadian contingent continues to face difficult new challenges in Afghanistan operation. Hungarian government and anti-government protestors commemorate 1956 revolt with violent response to violent uprising in Budapest. The international spotlight is focused on Eritrea after serious U.N. response to recent illegal Eritrean troop deployment in U.N. Temporary Security Zone (TSZ). Factional fighting precedes Presidential elections in D.R. Congo. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Guehenno calls for a new debate on the U.N. approach to peace operations.

Monday, October 23 06

2006-10-23T20:13:00.000-04:00

Open warfare is the likely consequence of militarism in Darfur. Next door the failed state of Somalia is a battleground for pro-Islamist militias and Ethiopia's armed forces. The U.K. has officially lost its nerve for Iraq operations. Uzbek President Karimov softens his account, but doesn't yield to foreign investigation of events in 2005 at Andijon. Restricted political autonomy for Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along Afghan border is an idea receiving powerful support in Pakistan.

Friday, October 20 06

2006-10-20T17:48:00.000-04:00

President Uribe begins a new term in Columbia with mandate to continue 'democratic security strategy' and open negotiations with the country's two active insurrections. Shi'ite militias gain control of southern Iraqi city of Al-Amarah. New Canadian Special Operations Regiment about to deploy on multifaceted initial mission in Afghanistan. Gwynne Dyer on Iraq's civilian casualties since the 2003 invasion. Max Boot on how to entrench U.S. military superiority.

Thursday, October 19 06

2006-10-19T12:05:00.000-04:00

After recent attacks, Sri Lanka is once again at the threshold of open war, yet it remains mostly below international press coverage. Russia straddles definition of military aggression while exercising in Georgian waters. Thailand's military coup not likely to worsen insurgency in the south. Political and economic refugees fleeing unstable Zimbabwe get caught between harsh and unforgiving international boundaries. NATO leadership appeals once again for increased troop contributions to Afghanistan peace operation from reluctant and/or overstretched members. Australian actress Kidman tries her hand at ethno-national conflict resolution as U.N. celebrity envoy in Kosovo.

Wednesday, October 18 06

2006-10-18T20:39:00.000-04:00

U.N. Security Council forces Eritrea to remove 1500 troops from U.N.-administered Temporary Security Zone (TSZ). Belorussia's opposition leader Milinkevich discusses the 'total fear' of political repression and invites Belorussians to make themselves heard in Minsk. Liberal International (LI) is a UK-based think tank promoting liberalism, human rights, tolerance and free trade worldwide. LI's upcoming Liberal International Congress (Nov. 9-11, Marrakech, Morocco) includes a panel discussion of progress being made implementing the ICISS Responsibility to Protect principle. The U.N. reform process clearly needs to find a unified direction. Today U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR) Arbour dispatched Swedish diplomat Sundh to monitor and improve human rights protection during Nepal's rebel insurgency. Hungary is looking back at a dark period and the 'bitter legacy' of a thwarted national liberation. Canada's Minister of Defense O'Connor tells us that 'the men and women of the Canadian Forces remain committed to the mission to help Afghan people establish a better future'.

Tuesday, October 17 06

2006-10-17T17:07:00.000-04:00

Defense forces in Abkhazia scheduled to hold military exercises October 23-26. Two UNMIL military police are injured in Liberia working to contain rioting. NATO says that the U.K. will withdraw from northeastern Afghan sector after local tribal leaders agree to drive out Taliban fighters. Accession conditions continue to evolve as the E.U. demands Turkey give passage to Cypriot planes and sea vessels. Suicide attack by suspected Tamil Tiger militants kills 92 Sri Lankan sailors in the lead-up to peace talks. Nepal's government and rebels' peace talks end with 'no result', except a commitment to meet again down the road.

Monday, October 16 06

2006-10-16T15:18:00.000-04:00

Signals of alarm in Tbilisi even though the odds are remote that Russia will recognize the legitimacy of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Eritrean forces seize a U.N. checkpoint in UNMEE's Temporary Security Zone (TSZ). Human security in central Africa could be greatly improved by D.R. Congo's October 29 Presidential election, which the international community needs to monitor carefully and follow with firm commitments. For Turkey, progress on E.U. membership is explicitly tied to liberalization, and for Serbia it's turning over fugitive war criminals. On Monday the U.N. Security Council elected all but one of its non-permanent seats, by procedures virtually designed to minimize powersharing with the third world. Steadfast Iraq war supporter Makiya lays out his current view and draws a picture of post-invasion Iraq.

Saturday, October 14 06

2006-10-14T21:08:00.000-04:00

Today the U.N. weighs in by cautioning Georgia with suggestions of confidence-building strategies, and extending UNOMIG's peacekeeping mandate until spring 2007. Thai coup leadership offers to facilitate the return of ousted PM Thaksin. Where's the debate on the desires and political interests of the peoples of Darfur? The E.U. expresses alarm about Sri Lanka's unstable provisional peace agreement, which must hold until long-term discussions occur two weeks from today. In Afghanistan, the people's allegiance goes to whoever can preserve security, and regional cooperation depends on reform and demilitarization in next door Pakistan.

Friday, October 13 06

2006-10-13T17:31:00.000-04:00

The European Union is preparing to challenge Russia's heavy-handed tactics against Georgia. Despite ten years of relative calm, long-term stability for Kosovo requires a political autonomy agreement that remains a long way off. Diplomat and human rights activist Robinson speaks on political repression, the 'Irish success story', and the need to protect peoples' cultural identity. Political protestors again come under police fire in Nigeria, and an aide to ex-Liberian President Taylor schemes to destabilize and assassinate leaders of the new regime. Sudan situation now clearly turns on how both U.N. multi-nation peacekeepers and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutors will be tasked to intervene.

Thursday, October 12 06

2006-10-12T13:24:00.000-04:00

Timor Leste remains in dangerous political limbo as it awaits a UN-appointed Special Commission of Inquiry's indictments and prosecutions, and the International Crisis Group (ICG) is reporting that deep crisis lies ahead. Attacks continuing in Sri Lanka, with ceasefire-resumption talks not scheduled until October 28-29. Were Beslan attackers a criminal gang or a rebel militia? What the U.N. Security Council recommends, the General Assembly eventually endorses: South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon likely to be confirmed this week as new U.N. Secretary General, which is seen as a positive step for future North Korean tensions. It's hard to believe U.N. Human Rights Council-watchers who say the new body is worse than its predecessor.